2026年8月31日 星期一
The Four-Day Mirage: Why Working Less Makes Us Better Machines
2026年8月19日 星期三
The AI-Generated Mirage: Why We Fall for the Ultimate Summer Scam
The AI-Generated Mirage: Why We Fall for the Ultimate Summer Scam
The Eternal Cough: Why Hong Kong Cinema Turned Self-Sacrifice Into a Blockbuster Religion
The Eternal Cough: Why Hong Kong Cinema Turned Self-Sacrifice Into a Blockbuster Religion
The Melodramatic Martyr: Why Soap Operas are Just Historical Prophecies in Drag
The Melodramatic Martyr: Why Soap Operas are Just Historical Prophecies in Drag
The Grand Illusion of Competence: Why the World is Run by Confident Mediocrity
The Grand Illusion of Competence: Why the World is Run by Confident Mediocrity
The Honey Trap and the Ambien Fog: How Politics Becomes a Spy Novel
The Honey Trap and the Ambien Fog: How Politics Becomes a Spy Novel
The Currency of Charisma: Why the World Falls in Love with a Scripted Dream
The Currency of Charisma: Why the World Falls in Love with a Scripted Dream
The Iron Lady’s Prescription: Why Every Tantrum is Now a Medical Diagnosis
The Iron Lady’s Prescription: Why Every Tantrum is Now a Medical Diagnosis
The Christmas Tree Thrower: Why Insurance Fraud is Humanity's Favorite Olympic Sport
The Christmas Tree Thrower: Why Insurance Fraud is Humanity's Favorite Olympic Sport
2026年8月18日 星期二
The Fake Professor’s Credential: Why We Fall for Anyone Wearing a Fancy Title
The Fake Professor’s Credential: Why We Fall for Anyone Wearing a Fancy Title
The Resurrection of Wen Daidai: Why Fiction Pays Better When You Are Dead
The Resurrection of Wen Daidai: Why Fiction Pays Better When You Are Dead
The Cosmic Self-Help Scam: Why We Fall for Alien Manifestation Manuals
The Cosmic Self-Help Scam: Why We Fall for Alien Manifestation Manuals
The Medal Mill: Why Society Runs on Cheap Plastic and Shiny Ribbons
The Medal Mill: Why Society Runs on Cheap Plastic and Shiny Ribbons
The Empire’s Cheap Trinkets: Why We Fall for Medals and Plastic Ribbons
The Empire’s Cheap Trinkets: Why We Fall for Medals and Plastic Ribbons
The Emperor's Echo Chamber: Why Bosses Fall in Love with Flattery
The Emperor's Echo Chamber: Why Bosses Fall in Love with Flattery
臣一介庸愚,學識淺陋,荷蒙風紀重任,日夜驚惶。思竭愚夫之千慮,仰贊高深於萬一。而數月以來,捧讀上諭,仁心仁政,悄切周詳,凡臣民之心所欲,而口不敢言者,皇上之心而已。皇上之心,仁孝誠敬,加以明恕,豈復尚有可議。而臣猶欲有言者,正於心無不純,政無不善之中,而有所慮焉,故過計而預防之也。
今夫治亂之迴圈,如陰陽之運行。坤陰極盛而陽生,乾陽極盛而陰始。事當極盛之際,必有陰伏之機。其機藏於至微,人不能覺。而及其既著,遂積重而不可退。此其問有三習焉,不可不慎戒也。
主德清則臣心服而頌,仁政多則民身受而感。出一言而盈廷稱聖,發一令而四海漚歌。在臣民原非獻諛,然而人君之耳,則熟於此矣。耳與譽化,匪譽則逆,故始而匡拂者拒,繼而木訥者厭,久而頌揚之不工者亦絀矣。是謂耳習於所聞,則鼓諛而惡直。
上愈智則下愈愚,上愈能則下愈畏。趨蹌諂脅,顧盼而皆然。免冠叩首,應聲而即是。在臣工以為盡禮,然而人君之目,則熟於此矣。目與媚化,匪媚則觸。故始而倨野者斥,繼而嚴憚者疏,久而便辟之不巧者亦忤矣。是謂目習於所見,則喜柔而惡剛。
敬求天下之士,見之多而以為無奇也,則高己而卑人。慎辦天下之務,閱之久而以為無難也,則雄才而易事。質之人而不聞其所短,返之己而不見其所過。於是乎意之所欲,信以為不逾,令之所發,概期於必行矣。是謂心習於所是,則喜從而惡違。
三習既成,乃生一弊。何謂一弊?喜小人而厭君子是也。
今夫進君子而退小人,豈獨三代以上知之哉?雖叔季之主,臨政願治,孰不思用君子。且自智之君,各賢其臣,孰不以為吾所用者必君子,而決非小人?乃卒於小人進而君子退者,無他,用才而不用德故也。
德者君子之所獨,才則小人與君子共之,而且勝焉。語言奏對,君子訥而小人佞諛,則與耳習投矣。奔走周旋,君子拙而小人便辟,則與目習投矣。即保事考勞,君子孤行其意,而恥於言功,小人巧於迎合,而工於顯勤,則與心習又投矣。
小人挾其所長以善投,人君溺於所習而不覺,審聽之而其言人耳,諦觀之而其貌悅目,歷試之而其才稱乎心也。於是乎小人不約而自合,君子不逐而自離,夫至於小人合而君子離,其患豈可勝言哉!
而揆厥所由,皆三習為之蔽焉。治亂之機,千古一轍,可考而知也。
我皇上聖明首出,無微不照,登庸耆碩,賢才匯升,豈惟並無此弊,亦並未有此習。然臣正及其未習也而言之;設其習既成,則有知之而不敢言,抑可言之而不見聽者矣!
今欲預除三習,永杜一弊,不在乎外,惟在乎心,故臣願言皇上之心也。語曰:「人非聖人,孰能無過。」此淺言也,夫聖人豈無過哉?惟聖人而後能知過,惟聖人而後能改過。孔子曰:「五十以學易,可以無大過矣。」大過且有,小過可知也。
聖人在下,過在一身;聖人在上,過在一世。書曰:「百姓有過,在予一人。」是也,文王之民無凍餒,而猶視以為如傷,惟文王知其傷也。文王之易貫天人,而猶望道而未見,惟文王知其未見也。
賢人之過,賢人知之,庸人不知。聖人之過,聖人知之,賢人不知。欲望人之繩愆糾謬,而及於所不知,難已!故望皇上之聖心腎凜之也。
危微之辨精,而後知執中難允。懷保之願巨集,而後知民隱難周。謹幾存誠,退之己而真知其不足。老安少懷,驗之世而實見其未能。夫而後囗然不敢以自是,不敢自是之意,流貫於用人行政之間,夫而後知諫凈切磋者,愛我良深,而諛悅為容者,愚己而陷之阱也。
耳目之習除,而便辟善柔便佞之態,一見而若浼。取捨之極定,而嗜好宴安功利之說,無緣以相投,夫而後治臻於郅隆,化成於久道也。
不然,而自是之根不拔,則雖斂心為慎,慎之久而覺其無過,則謂可以少寬。勵志為勤,勤之久而覺其有功,則謂可以稍慰,夫賢良輔弼,海宇升平,人君之心稍慰,而欲少自寬,似亦無害於天下。而不知此念一轉,則嗜好宴安功利之說,漸入耳而不煩。而便辟善柔便佞者,亦熟視而不見其可惜。久而習焉,忽不自知,而為其所中,則黑白可以轉色,而東西可以易位。所謂機伏於至微,而勢成於不可返者,此之謂也。是豈可不慎戒而預防之哉。
《書》曰:「滿招損,謙受益。」又曰:「德日新,萬邦為懷;志自滿,九族乃離。」大學言,見賢而不能舉,見不賢而不能退。至於好惡拂人之性,而推所由失,皆因於驕泰。滿於驕泰者,自是之謂也。
由此觀之,治亂之機,轉於君子小人之進退。進退之機,握於人君一心之敬肆,能如非,則心不期敬而自敬,不見過,則心不期肆而自肆。敬者君子之招,而治之本。肆者小人之媒,而亂之階也。然則沿流溯源,約言蔽義,惟望我皇上時時事事,常存不敢自是之心,而天德王道,舉不外於此矣。語曰:「狂夫之言,而聖人擇焉。」臣幸生聖世,昌言不諱,敢故竭其狂瞽,伏惟皇上包容而垂察焉,則天下幸甚!
The Bystander’s Double-Decker: Why Modern Civilization is Just a Bus Driving Past a Nightmare
The Bystander’s Double-Decker: Why Modern Civilization is Just a Bus Driving Past a Nightmare
2026年8月10日 星期一
The Neighborhood Spy: Why Information Is the Ultimate Retirement Plan
The Neighborhood Spy: Why Information Is the Ultimate Retirement Plan
2026年8月6日 星期四
The Eraser of Conscience: Why the Art of Rewriting Expiration Dates is Late-Capitalism’s Favorite Magic Trick
The Eraser of Conscience: Why the Art of Rewriting Expiration Dates is Late-Capitalism’s Favorite Magic Trick
The Phantom Takeaway: Why Blind Trust is Always a Restaurateur's Dearest Mistake
The Phantom Takeaway: Why Blind Trust is Always a Restaurateur's Dearest Mistake
2026年8月4日 星期二
The 1.88-Million-Dollar Math Lesson: Why Buying More Lottery Tickets is Just a Tax on Innumeracy
The 1.88-Million-Dollar Math Lesson: Why Buying More Lottery Tickets is Just a Tax on Innumeracy
Humanity has spent centuries mastering calculus, quantum mechanics, and space travel, yet a terrifying number of us still believe that throwing more money at a lottery ticket is a strategic investment. We love to indulge in the magical thinking that if we just buy enough permutations, we can somehow bully Lady Luck into surrendering the jackpot.
Take the recent frenzy over a HK$13 million Mark Six draw, where some unfortunate optimist decided to drop a staggering HK$1,880,000 on a massive multiple-entry (复式) ticket, only to watch their life savings evaporate into thin air. It is the ultimate monument to human self-deception.
Let’s look at the brutal, unvarnished mathematics of the standard Mark Six. To win the jackpot, you need to match 6 numbers out of 49. The total number of unique combinations is a clean, merciless figure: $49 \choose 6$, which equals 13,983,816. Your base probability of hitting the jackpot with a single $10 ticket is roughly 1 in 14 million.
Now, what does a HK$1.88 million multiple-entry ticket actually buy you? At $10 per unit, 1.88 million dollars purchases roughly 188,000 different combinations. Sounds impressive, right? You've covered a lot of ground! Let's calculate your new, upgraded odds: 188,000 divided by 13,983,816 gives you a winning probability of approximately 1.34%, or roughly 1 in 74.
Read that again. You just incinerated nearly two million hard-earned dollars—enough to buy a luxury car or a solid chunk of a flat down payment—to boost your chances from an impossible 1-in-14-million to a still-terrible 1-in-74. You are still overwhelmingly likely to lose. And even if lightning strikes and you actually win the HK$13 million jackpot, congratulations! After spending nearly 2 million to win 13 million, minus taxes and the fact that jackpots are often split with other winners, you might walk away with a net return that makes financial advisors weep. It is not gambling; it is a mathematical execution.
From an evolutionary standpoint, our brains are ancient survival machines poorly wired for modern probability. We evolved to spot patterns in nature, not to comprehend the crushing indifference of exponential combinatorics. Lotteries exploit this neurological glitch, weaponizing our desperate urge for status and escape against our own wallets.
The house doesn't need to cheat; they just rely on the infinite supply of humans willing to pay a premium for a delusion. The next time you are tempted to buy out half the number board, remember that no amount of combinatorial wizardry can fix bad math—and the only guaranteed winner of a lottery is the person laughing all the way to the bank.