The State's Hidden Tax: Analyzing William Rees-Mogg's Case Against Fiat Currencies in The Crisis of World Inflation

 

The State's Hidden Tax: Analyzing William Rees-Mogg's Case Against Fiat Currencies in The Crisis of World Inflation

Published in 1974, William Rees-Mogg’s The Crisis of World Inflation offers a stark and uncompromising critique of modern monetary systems. The book’s central argument revolves around the historical inevitability of failure for fiat currencies—money declared legal tender by a government but not backed by a physical commodity like gold.

The Inherent Flaw of Fiat Money

Rees-Mogg contends that history offers a clear lesson: all fiat currencies, regardless of the political system that issues them, eventually fail due to inflation. The root cause is the irresistible temptation for governments to print money as a short-term solution to fiscal problems. This process, evident in crises like the post-2008 financial bailout and the mass money creation during the COVID-19 pandemic, inevitably leads to the erosion of currency value.

Inflation as Hidden Taxation

The author defines inflation not merely as rising prices, but fundamentally as a form of hidden taxation—the state taking money from its citizens by stealth. Taxation is politically difficult, but printing money provides governments (whether democratic or autocratic) with an easier, less obvious mechanism to seize purchasing power.

The mechanism is explained using Irving Fisher’s Quantity Theory of Money, summarized by the equation MV = PT:

• M (Money Supply): The amount of money in the economy.

• V (Velocity): The rate at which money is spent.

• P (Prices): The general price level.

• T (Transactions): The number of transactions.

Rees-Mogg argues that when governments significantly increase the money supply (M), the easiest way for the equation to balance is for prices (P) to rise, absorbing the extra currency in the system. The book serves as a foundational warning against government debasement of the currency and implicitly encourages readers to consider real investments that hold value against monetary instability.

國家隱藏的稅負：解析威廉・里斯-莫格《世界通貨膨脹的危機》中反對法定貨幣的核心論點

 

國家隱藏的稅負：解析威廉・里斯-莫格《世界通貨膨脹的危機》中反對法定貨幣的核心論點

威廉・里斯-莫格（William Rees-Mogg）於 1974 年出版的《世界通貨膨脹的危機》（The Crisis of World Inflation）對現代貨幣體系提出了尖銳而毫不妥協的批判。該書的核心論點圍繞著法定貨幣（Fiat Currencies）因其內在缺陷而最終走向失敗的歷史必然性。法定貨幣是一種由政府宣佈為法定支付工具，但沒有黃金等實體商品支持的貨幣。

法定貨幣的固有缺陷

里斯-莫格認為，歷史提供了明確的教訓：所有法定貨幣，無論發行它的政治體系為何，最終都因通貨膨脹而失敗。根本原因在於政府難以抗拒印製鈔票的誘惑，將其作為解決財政問題的短期手段。這一過程在 2008-09 年金融危機後的紓困，以及 COVID-19 疫情期間大規模的貨幣創造中表露無遺，並不可避免地導致貨幣價值的侵蝕。

通貨膨脹即是隱藏的稅收

作者將通貨膨脹不僅定義為物價上漲，更從根本上視為一種隱藏的稅收——即國家以隱蔽的方式掠奪公民財富。徵稅在政治上困難重重，但印製鈔票為政府（無論是民主還是專制政權）提供了一種更容易、更不明顯的機制來攫取購買力。

書中利用歐文・費雪的貨幣數量理論，即著名的 MV = PT 費雪方程式，來解釋這一機制：

• M (Money Supply)： 經濟體中的貨幣數量。

• V (Velocity)： 貨幣的流通速度。

• P (Prices)： 一般物價水平。

• T (Transactions)： 交易數量。

里斯-莫格指出，當政府大幅增加貨幣供給（M）時，為了使方程式保持平衡，最容易發生的結果是價格（P）上漲，以吸收體系中多餘的貨幣。這本書是對政府貶值貨幣行為的基礎性警告，並間接鼓勵讀者考慮能夠抵禦貨幣不穩定性的實質投資。

誠實的賭局：您的健康保障，應該在輪盤賭桌上，而非保費通知單中

 誠實的賭局：您的健康保障，應該在輪盤賭桌上，而非保費通知單中

讓我們暫時拋開「負責任的財務規劃」這個神話，來看看風險管理的殘酷現實。我們一直被灌輸，把辛苦賺來的錢投入保單是謹慎的選擇，然而，當我們比較保險公司和賭場的營運差異時，會發現其中一個行業在道德上和透明度上更為一致。

如果您真的想讓您的資金獲得公平對待，請繞過那位友好的代理人，直接走向荷官。

賭場：金融透明的典範

賭場的商業模式極其簡單，而這正是它的道德天才之處：您支付資金，確切了解賠率，交易立即結束。將這種清晰度與保險公司不透明的做法進行比較：

1. 成功的懲罰（保費上漲 vs. 固定賠率）： 在賭場中，如果您押注紅色並獲勝，莊家不會懲罰您，讓您下一局押注紅色時支付更高的成本。然而，保險公司的整個商業模式卻圍繞著懲罰您的成功——這個「成功」就是您需要使用您購買的保單。如果您提出了車險或醫療索賠？恭喜您，您的「獎勵」是下一年的保費將會神秘地上漲。他們通過讓您害怕使用產品來獲利。

2. 即時賠付（荷官 vs. 理賠部門）： 賭場通過荷官直接且立即賠付。現金流即時、透明且結清。那保險公司呢？他們要求您與理賠部門進行拉鋸戰，一個與收取您支票的友好代理人截然不同的無形實體。他們故意引入理賠摩擦來降低「損失率」(Loss Ratio)，最大限度地保留資金，迫使您為本來就屬於您的資本而戰。

3. 浮存金：無息貸款： 保險公司獲利的核心是「浮存金」(The Float)——他們持有您已繳納的保費數月甚至數年，並將其投資以產生純利潤。他們將您必要的應急基金變成了他們零成本的私人股權基金。賭場要求並立即支付現金，使交易保持乾淨。保險公司現在拿走您的錢，投資它，然後讓您以後乞求拿回它。

4. 選擇與自由： 在賭場中，您可以玩單數或雙數——您可以選擇押注積極的結果。而在保險中，您只能投保來對抗死亡，而不是對抗生命本身。他們只銷售恐懼，將您的選擇限制在對沖損失上，同時又從其產品的強制性中獲利。

因此，下次當您考慮購買保單時，請想起輪盤賭桌：至少荷官會直視您的眼睛，在您贏錢時立即賠付，並且不會僅僅因為您幸運而在第二天向您收取更多費用。

The Honest Bet: Why Your Health Protection Belongs at the Roulette Table, Not in a Premium Notice

 The Honest Bet: Why Your Health Protection Belongs at the Roulette Table, Not in a Premium Notice

Let's abandon the myth of "responsible financial planning" for a moment and look at the brutal reality of risk management. We've been conditioned to believe that pouring our hard-earned money into an insurance policy is the prudent choice, yet when we look at the operational differences between an insurance carrier and a casino, one industry is glaringly more transparent and ethically consistent.

If you truly want a fair shake for your money, bypass the friendly agent and head straight for the dealer.

The Casino: A Model of Financial Transparency

The casino's business model is brutally simple, and that’s its moral genius: you pay your money, you know the exact odds, and the transaction concludes immediately. Compare this clarity to the insurer's opaque practices:

1. The Penalty for Success (Premium Hike vs. Fixed Odds): In a casino, if you bet on red and win, the house doesn't penalize you by making the next bet on red cost more. Yet, an insurer's entire business model revolves around penalizing you for success—the "success" being needing the policy you paid for. If you file a car claim or a health claim, your premium will mysteriously increase the following year. They profit by making you afraid to use the product.

2. The Immediate Payout (The Dealer vs. The Claims Department): The casino pays directly and immediately via the dealer. Cash flow is instant, transparent, and settled. The insurance company? They demand you struggle with the claims department, a faceless entity distinct from the friendly agent who took your initial cheque. They purposefully introduce claims friction to reduce the "Loss Ratio," maximizing the money they keep and forcing you to fight for the capital that was technically yours all along.

3. The Float: An Interest-Free Loan: The core of the insurer's profitability is the "Float"—your collected premiums held for months or years, which they invest to generate pure profit. They turn your necessary emergency fund into their zero-cost private equity fund. The casino demands and pays cash instantly, keeping transactions clean. The insurer takes your money now, invests it, and then makes you beg for it back later.

4. Choice and Freedom: In a casino, you can play odd or even—you can bet on a positive outcome, if you choose. With insurance, you can only insure against death, not against living. They only sell fear, limiting your options to hedging against loss, while simultaneously profiting from the very mandatory nature of their product.

So, the next time you consider buying that policy, remember the roulette table: at least the dealer will look you in the eye, pay you instantly when you win, and won't charge you more the next day just because you were lucky.

收購目標比較：保險公司與賭場

 商業提案：投資論點

收購目標比較：保險公司與賭場

收件人：私募股權收購委員會

日期：2025 年 10 月 20 日

執行摘要

雖然賭場提供高速度、高波動的收入，但收購保險公司能提供明顯更優越的經風險調整後的回報、可預測的經常性收入，以及多種非保費的盈利途徑。保險模式在結構上是為資本保留和客戶終身價值 (LTV) 而設計的，使其成為穩定、槓桿增長的卓越收購目標。

I. 經常性收入的優越性（訂閱模式）

根本區別在於客戶關係。賭場是交易性的；每一塊錢都必須在高開銷、高競爭的環境中主動贏得。然而，保險公司則以訂閱模式運營。

1. 受管制收入基礎：與屬於可自由支配支出的賭博不同，大多數保險產品（汽車、房屋、商業責任險）是法律或功能上強制性的。這創造了一個巨大的、不受消費者衝動影響的非週期性收入基礎。

2. 可預測現金流：保費按季或按年收取，建立了高度可預測和經常性的現金流，這支持了長期債務結構和估值—這是私募股權的核心偏好。

II. 浮存金的獨特力量（資本槓桿）

這是最關鍵的財務優勢。賭場在結果確定後立即支付獎金，需要大量的流動性儲備。相比之下，保險公司會在索賠最終解決之前，持有客戶資金——即浮存金 (The Float)——數年之久。

1. 投資收益：保費在今天收取，但索賠可能需要數月甚至數十年才支付。保險公司將這龐大的客戶資本池（浮存金）進行投資，產生可觀的投資收益，這些收益往往是純利潤，與承保結果無關。

2. 資本成本：浮存金相當於客戶提供的無息貸款，為被收購的公司提供了一個成本幾乎為零的資本槓桿來源——這是加速私募股權回報的強大動力。

III. 多重盈利途徑與動態定價

保險公司能夠以賭場無法做到的方式，根據個人的行為和表現來賺取客戶的錢，並調整其定價。

1. 動態保費調整：賭場不能因為玩家贏錢而在下一輪提高賠率。然而，保險公司在客戶提出索賠後（例如：車禍或醫療事件），能夠且確實會提高保費，作為對下一年的定價。這成功地將客戶對保單的 使用 貨幣化，將索賠事件轉化為利潤優化機會。

2. 理賠摩擦與損失率：理賠部門的複雜性，通常被消費者視為負面因素，但卻是一個旨在有效降低「損失率」(Loss Ratio)（已付索賠與已收保費之比）的結構性特徵。這種摩擦最大化了資本保留，與賭場所需的即時、直接支付截然不同。

3. 交叉銷售與數據槓桿：保險公司擁有深層次、強制性的個人數據（健康、駕駛、財產）。這種數據資產對於交叉銷售其他高利潤金融產品（人壽保險、年金）以及產生極具利潤的合作關係是無價的。

結論

賭場業務很簡單：高風險、高回報、低經常性 LTV。保險業務很複雜：受監管的風險、可預測的經常性 LTV，以及透過浮存金帶來的巨大資本槓桿。對於專注於複利資產和可預測償債的私募股權公司而言，收購保險公司所帶來的經風險調整後的回報和結構性資本優勢是絕對優越的。

Acquisition Target Comparison: Insurance vs. Casino

 BUSINESS PROPOSAL: INVESTMENT THESIS

Acquisition Target Comparison: Insurance vs. Casino

To: Private Equity Acquisition Committee

Date: October 20, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

While casinos offer high-velocity, high-volatility revenue, an insurance carrier acquisition offers demonstrably superior risk-adjusted returns, predictable recurring revenue, and multiple non-premium monetization pathways. The insurance model is structurally designed for capital retention and long-term customer value (LTV), making it the superior acquisition target for stable, leveraged growth.

I. THE SUPERIORITY OF RECURRING REVENUE (THE SUBSCRIPTION MODEL)

The fundamental difference lies in the customer relationship. A casino is transactional; every dollar must be actively won in a high-overhead, high-competing environment. An insurance company, however, operates on a subscription model.

1. Mandated Revenue Base: Unlike casino gambling, which is discretionary spending, most insurance products (auto, home, commercial liability) are legally or functionally mandatory. This creates a vast, non-cyclical revenue base immune to consumer impulse.

2. Predictable Cash Flow: Premiums are collected quarterly or annually, establishing a highly predictable and recurring cash flow stream that supports long-term debt structuring and valuation—a core private equity preference.

II. THE UNIQUE POWER OF THE FLOAT (CAPITAL LEVERAGE)

This is the most crucial financial advantage. A casino pays winnings immediately upon resolution, requiring massive liquidity reserves. An insurance company, by contrast, holds customer funds—the Float—for years before claims are finally settled.

1. Investment Income: Premiums are collected today, but claims may not be paid for months or even decades. The insurance carrier invests this vast pool of customer capital (the Float), generating significant investment income that is often pure profit, irrespective of underwriting results.

2. Cost of Capital: The Float acts as an interest-free loan from the customer base, providing the acquired company with a nearly zero-cost source of capital leverage—a powerful accelerator for PE returns.

III. MULTIPLE MONETIZATION PATHWAYS & DYNAMIC PRICING

The insurance company can monetize its customers in ways a casino cannot, adapting its pricing based on the individual's behavior and performance.

1. Dynamic Premium Adjustment: Casinos cannot penalize a winning player by raising the odds for the next spin. Insurance companies, however, can and do raise premiums for the following year after a customer files a claim (e.g., a car accident or health event). This successfully monetizes the customer's utilization of the policy, turning a claims event into a profit-optimization opportunity.

2. Claims Friction and Loss Ratio: The complexity of the claims department, often cited by consumers as a negative, is a structural feature designed to efficiently reduce the "Loss Ratio" (claims paid vs. premiums received). This friction maximizes capital retention, unlike the immediate, direct payout required in a casino.

3. Cross-Selling and Data Leverage: The insurer owns deep, mandatory personal data (health, driving, property). This data asset is invaluable for cross-selling other high-margin financial products (life insurance, annuities) and for generating highly profitable partnerships.

CONCLUSION

The casino business is simple: high risk, high reward, low recurring LTV. The insurance business is complex: regulated risk, predictable recurring LTV, and massive capital leverage via the Float. For a private equity firm focused on compounding assets and predictable debt service, the risk-adjusted returns and structural capital advantages of an insurance acquisition are unequivocally superior.

賭場與保險：風險與回報的比較

 

賭場與保險：風險與回報的比較

賭場和保險公司都是建立在機率和大量數據的科學基礎上，獲利豐厚的巨型企業。然而，它們代表了兩種根本不同的應對人類風險的方法——一種植根於自願的娛樂，另一種則源於強制性的安全保障。仔細觀察會發現它們在營運和道德上的差異，這使一些消費者認為賭場簡單、直接的模式，比保險公司複雜的結構更具透明度。

核心差異：透明度、可及性與定價

特點	賭場 (莊家)	保險公司 (保單)
風險可及性	提供幾乎任何事物的風險投注（例如：單數、雙數、顏色、數字）。你可以賭成功或失敗。	將風險限制於特定的不利事件（例如：死亡、損壞、疾病）。你只能投保來對抗損失，而不是對抗生命本身。
賠付速度	在單一事件解決後，透過荷官/發牌員立即直接支付。	賠付通常會被延遲並經過索賠部門的調解，要求保戶與流程進行拉鋸。
保費/賠率調整	你贏錢後，賠率（投注的價格）保持不變。莊家不會因為你成功了就改變下一輪的規則。	在你提出索賠後（例如：車禍、醫療事件），保費會上漲。你因為成功使用你付費購買的服務而受到懲罰。
定價透明度	賠率和「莊家優勢」在數學上是清晰且公開可見的。娛樂的成本是已知的。	保費計算複雜、不透明，基於專有的精算數據，這通常在消費者之間造成資訊不對稱。
服務提供者	服務由荷官或場地主管直接提供，是一個高度可見的前線員工。	服務（賠付）由理賠員提供，這是一個與收取你支票的友好代理人截然不同的遙遠人物。
道德重點	銷售自願、非必需的娛樂和冒險行為。賭場的成功是以參與量來衡量。	銷售必要的金融安全和監管合規。保險公司的成功是以最大化保費和最小化賠付來衡量。

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