從中華治世到衰退：中國會否步羅馬後塵？預測其間事件

 

從中華治世到衰退：中國會否步羅馬後塵？預測其間事件

作為一名歷史學家，面對跨越千年和大陸的歷史類比時，我們必須極度謹慎。沒有兩個帝國是完全相同的。然而，研究羅馬的軌跡，特別是它的衰落，為分析任何龐大、中央集權力量（包括現代中國）的可持續性提供了一個有力且發人深省的框架。問題不在於當前的中華治世（Pax Sinica）是否會結束，而在於它是會像羅馬一樣從內部矛盾中緩慢崩塌，還是會因外部衝擊而迅速崩解。

羅馬的模式：鼎盛與衰朽

羅馬並非一日之間傾覆。它的衰落是一個緩慢的、系統性的過程，經常被表面上的穩定時期（如安東尼黃金時代）所掩蓋。導致其長達數世紀衰敗的關鍵因素包括：

1. 帝國過度擴張： 羅馬不斷擴大邊界，對其後勤和軍事能力造成難以承受的壓力。這導致稅收和人力需求不斷增加，耗竭了帝國核心。

2. 經濟衰退與通貨膨脹： 為了資助戰爭和國家官僚機構而貶值貨幣（通貨膨脹），侵蝕了公眾信任，摧毀了中產階級的經濟穩定，財富集中在精英手中。

3. 內部凝聚力與繼承危機： 對軍事力量維持政治穩定的依賴，導致核心地區頻繁發生內戰，動盪不安，廣闊帝國中共同的身份認同感逐漸減弱。

4. 道德與知識停滯： 官僚機構變得僵化，無法創新或有效應對新挑戰，轉而依賴過去的解決方案。

中國的軌跡：潛在的崩潰迴響

如果中國走上羅馬的道路，從當前的鼎盛時期到最終衰落之間的事件，很可能遵循一個可識別的系統性壓力和過度擴張模式：

1. 全球主導地位的巔峰（新黃金時代）： 中國成功實現了無可爭議的全球經濟和技術優勢，也許在印太地區鞏固了「中華治世」。這一刻代表了最大的地緣政治影響力——相當於羅馬的安東尼時代。

2. 過度擴張的陷阱： 在民族主義狂熱和戰略需求（確保資源、維持全球影響力）的驅動下，北京將資源投入到遠離其邊界的項目或衝突中（類似於羅馬在高盧或波斯的戰役）。這導致了長期的預算緊張。

3. 官僚與人口的危機： 統治結構對控制的痴迷使其變得過於僵硬，對複雜的區域問題反應遲鈍。同時，快速老齡化的人口和下降的生育率造成了人口倒掛，扼殺了經濟活力，並極大地增加了萎縮中的勞動人口的稅收負擔。

4. 經濟矛盾爆發： 為了維持增長的假象和資助社會福利（一種帝國的「麵包與馬戲」），國家繼續印鈔或吹大資產泡沫。這導致了地方債務危機的普遍存在和日益加劇的內部不平等，侵蝕了社會契約。

5. 合法性危機： 與羅馬不同，中國的核心挑戰是缺乏宗教或憲法合法性；它完全依賴於經濟表現。隨著經濟停滯或逆轉，治理危機將表現為中央出現嚴重的繼承或政治不穩定危機，導致精英階層和公眾之間的信任破裂。

6. 邊緣裂痕與軍事壓力： 國家被迫將其不斷萎縮的財富的越來越大部分分配給內部穩定（國內安全）和邊境防禦，類似於羅馬用貶值的硬幣支付邊境軍隊的做法。外部競爭對手或內部地區動亂將利用這種軍事和財政緊張，加速體系的崩潰。

這種結局，與羅馬在西方最終的巴爾幹化不同，可能更接近傳統的中國朝代週期——一段劇烈的內亂和混亂時期，最終讓位給在舊秩序廢墟上建立的新中央集權秩序。然而，在一個核武化、全球化的世界中，這種崩潰的後果將是災難性的、即時的，而不像羅馬西部那樣是緩慢的悲劇。

From Pax Sinica to Decline: Could China Follow the Roman Arc?

 

From Pax Sinica to Decline: Could China Follow the Roman Arc?

As an historian, one must approach historical analogies—especially those spanning millennia and continents—with extreme caution. No two empires are truly identical. However, the study of the Roman trajectory, particularly its decline, provides a powerful and often sobering framework for analyzing the sustainability of any vast, centralized power, including modern China. The question is not if the current Pax Sinica will end, but whether it will crumble slowly from internal contradictions like Rome, or rapidly due to external shock.

The Roman Pattern: Zenith and Decay

Rome did not fall in a day. Its decline was a slow, systemic process, often masked by periods of apparent stability (like the Antonine Golden Age). Key factors that contributed to its centuries-long decay include:

1. Imperial Overextension: Rome continuously expanded its borders, placing unbearable strain on its logistical and military capacity. This required ever-increasing taxes and manpower, depleting the core.

2. Economic Decay and Inflation: The debasement of currency (inflation) to fund wars and state bureaucracy eroded public trust and destroyed the economic stability of the middle class, concentrating wealth among the elite.

3. Internal Cohesion and Succession Crises: A reliance on the military for political stability led to frequent civil wars, instability in the core, and a diminishing sense of shared identity across the vast empire.

4. Moral and Intellectual Stagnation: The bureaucracy became ossified, unable to innovate or respond effectively to new challenges, relying instead on past solutions.

The Chinese Trajectory: Potential Echoes of Collapse

If China were to walk the Roman path, the events between its current zenith and its ultimate decline would likely follow a recognizable pattern of systemic stress and overreach:

1. The Peak of Global Dominance (The New Golden Age): China successfully achieves undisputed global economic and technological superiority, perhaps solidifying the Pax Sinica across the Indo-Pacific. This moment represents the maximum geopolitical reach—the Antonine Age moment.

2. The Overextension Trap: Driven by nationalistic fervor and strategic necessity (securing resources, maintaining global influence), Beijing commits resources to projects or conflicts far from its border (analogous to the Roman campaigns in Dacia or Persia). This leads to chronic budgetary strain.

3. The Bureaucratic and Demographic Crunch: The ruling structure, obsessed with control, becomes too rigid and unresponsive to complex regional problems. Simultaneously, the rapidly aging population and declining birth rates create a demographic inversion that suffocates economic dynamism and dramatically increases the tax burden on a shrinking working population.

4. Economic Contradiction: To maintain the illusion of growth and finance social welfare (a form of imperial bread and circuses), the state continues to print money or inflate asset bubbles. This leads to endemic local debt crisesand rising internal inequality, eroding the social contract.

5. The Crisis of Legitimacy: Unlike Rome, China's core challenge is the lack of religious or constitutional legitimacy; it relies solely on economic performance. As the economy stalls or reverses, the crisis of governance will manifest as a severe succession or political instability crisis at the center, leading to fracturing trust among the elites and the public.

6. Peripheral Fractures and Military Strain: The state is forced to allocate an ever-larger portion of its shrinking wealth to internal stability (domestic security) and border defense, reminiscent of the Roman practice of paying frontier armies in debased coinage. External rivals or internal regional unrest exploit this military and financial strain, hastening the system's breakdown.

The end, unlike Rome's ultimate balkanization in the West, might more closely resemble the traditional Chinese Dynastic Cycle—a period of intense civil strife and chaos, eventually giving way to a new, centralized order built on the ruins of the old. However, in a nuclear, globalized world, the consequences of such a collapse would be catastrophically immediate, unlike the slow-motion tragedy of the Roman west.

黃金與秩序的重量：為何中國的價值觀呼應著羅馬的異教實用主義

 

黃金與秩序的重量：為何中國的價值觀呼應著羅馬的異教實用主義

地位與穩定的眾神

在西方心智中，「普世人性尊嚴」的概念已成為我們呼吸的空氣。我們理所當然地接受個體的內在價值——這個觀念認為最弱小的公民、囚犯或社會棄兒的生命，與皇帝或億萬富翁的生命擁有平等且神聖的價值。但正如我在《天下》中所試圖展示的，這個觀念並非人類自然的繼承物；它是一種深刻的基督教強加，與前基督教世界的道德規範徹底背離。

要理解一個位處於此基督教範式之外的主要強權，我們必須回溯，超越釘十字架的革命性信息，轉向古典世界——特別是羅馬。

古羅馬，儘管其在法律、工程和征服方面取得了巨大的成就，但卻受制於赤裸裸的權力和堅定的等級制度。羅馬人是殘酷實用主義的大師。同情心並非美德；它往往是一種弱點。正義由等級劃分；公民的生命價值遠高於奴隸。個體的目的是服務於「羅馬治世」（Pax Romana）的更大榮耀——這是透過壓倒性統治所建立的和平。

正是在這種前基督教功利主義的道德景觀中，我們可以在當代中國的體系中找到驚人的呼應。

實用主義等級制度的迴歸

雖然中國受到其自身龐大傳統——儒家、法家和現代共產主義——的塑造，但其當前的核心道德原則，卻展現出與異教羅馬對秩序、權力與實用性的關注有著迷人的延續性。

1. 國家作為終極裁決者： 在羅馬，共和國（Res Publica）及其後的皇帝是至高無上的道德仲裁者。國家不僅僅是人民的僕人；它是他們的主人，要求最終的忠誠。同樣，當代中國的主導哲學圍繞著國家穩定和民族復興展開。個人的自由、良知和政治異議並非被視為錯誤，而是從屬於黨國的集體力量和安全。這正是異教功利主義原則的定義：個體的存在是為了服務於權力結構的統治地位。

2. 缺乏卑微者的神聖性： 基督教的故事——對一個被釘十字架的奴隸的崇拜——透過神聖化弱小來徹底改革了西方倫理。羅馬蔑視弱小。中國的體系優先考慮人才、效率以及對國家的可證明貢獻，這與羅馬對地位和已證明能力的關注不謀而合。當這個體系處理批評者、異議者或邊緣群體時，國家的判斷被置於優先地位，因為，就像羅馬一樣，普世的、神賦的個體權利這一核心假設，根本不存在於其操作手冊中。如果一位公民的存在威脅到了「中華治世」（Pax Sinica），那麼他們的犧牲將被視為實用且必要的，而非對神聖秩序的道德暴行。

3. 財富與力量的崇拜： 羅馬社會執著於展示 virtus（男子氣概／統治力），通常透過炫耀財富和征服來體現。今天，北京和羅馬都將宏偉的建設、經濟主導地位和軍事力量的投射，視為其道德優越性和統治權的終極證明。對於權力、特權或財富，並沒有像後來在基督教化的西方那樣，產生根本性的懷疑。

對於西方人來說，為了經濟穩定而犧牲少數群體的權利似乎是野蠻的；然而，對於一位羅馬元老——或者，可以說，一位沒有基督教深刻道德遺產的現代中國官員——這僅僅是一個合理的計算。

現代西方，即使在其最世俗化的形式中，也在使用誕生於伯利恆和耶路撒冷的詞彙（平等、人權、弱者值得保護）來進行這些鬥爭。中國，在很大程度上發展於這場革命之外，則是在羅馬帝國更古老、更無情、但卻深刻邏輯的原則下運作：透過統治來實現秩序。唯一的問題是，這個新的「治世」能在物質富裕和道德超然之間的巨大張力中維持多久。

The Weight of Gold and Order: Why China’s Values Echo the Pagan Pragmatism of Rome

 

The Weight of Gold and Order: Why China’s Values Echo the Pagan Pragmatism of Rome

The Gods of Status and Stability

In the Western mind, the concept of universal human dignity has become the air we breathe. We take for granted the intrinsic worth of the individual—the very idea that the life of the weakest citizen, the prisoner, or the social outcast holds an equal, sacred value to that of the emperor or the billionaire. But as my work in Dominion attempts to show, this notion is not a natural inheritance of humankind; it is a profoundly Christian imposition, a radical departure from the moral norms of the pre-Christian world.

To understand a major power that stands outside this Christian paradigm, we must look backward, beyond the revolutionary message of the Crucifixion, and toward the classical world—specifically, to Rome.

Ancient Rome, for all its colossal achievements in law, engineering, and conquest, was governed by naked power and unflinching status. The Romans were masters of a cruel pragmatism. Compassion was not a virtue; it was often a weakness. Justice was defined by hierarchy; the life of a citizen was immeasurably more valuable than that of a slave. The purpose of the individual was to serve the greater glory of the Pax Romana—the peace established through overwhelming dominance.

It is in this moral landscape of pre-Christian utility that we can find uncanny echoes in the modern system of China.

The Return of Utilitarian Hierarchy

While China is shaped by its own immense traditions—Confucianism, Legalism, and modern Communism—its governing moral principles today demonstrate a fascinating continuity with the pagan Roman focus on order, power, and utility.

1. The State as the Ultimate Judge: In Rome, the Res Publica (the Commonwealth) and later the Emperor were the supreme moral arbiters. The state was not merely a servant of the people; it was their master, demanding ultimate allegiance. Likewise, the dominant philosophy in contemporary China centers on state stability and national rejuvenation. Individual freedoms, conscience, and political dissent are not dismissed as wrong, but as subordinate to the collective strength and security of the Party-State. This is the very definition of the pagan principle of utility: the individual exists to serve the dominance of the power structure.

2. The Absence of the Lowly’s Sacredness: The Christian story—the worship of a crucified slave—revolutionized Western ethics by sanctifying weakness. Rome scorned weakness. China’s system, prioritizing talent, efficiency, and demonstrable contribution to the nation, mirrors Rome’s focus on status and demonstrated competence. When the system deals with critics, dissenters, or marginalized groups, the state's judgment is prioritized because, like Rome, the core assumption of universal, God-given individual rights is simply absent from the operational manual. If a citizen’s existence threatens the Pax Sinica (the Chinese Peace), their sacrifice is viewed as pragmatic and necessary, not as a moral outrage against a divine order.

3. The Cult of Wealth and Strength: Roman society was obsessed with exhibiting virtus (manly virtue/dominance) often demonstrated through spectacular wealth and conquest. Today, both Beijing and Rome celebrate monumental construction, economic mastery, and the projection of military strength as the ultimate proof of their moral superiority and right to rule. There is no fundamental suspicion of power, privilege, or wealth in the way it later arose in the Christianized West.

To a Westerner, the idea of sacrificing a minority group’s rights for economic stability seems barbarous; yet, to a Roman senator—or, arguably, a modern Chinese official operating without the deep, nagging moral inheritance of Christianity—it is merely a sensible calculation.

The modern West, even in its most secular iterations, fights these battles using vocabulary (equality, human rights, the weak being worthy of protection) forged in Bethlehem and Jerusalem. China, having developed largely outside this revolution, operates on the older, more ruthless, but profoundly logical principles of Imperial Rome: Order by Dominance. The only question is how long this new Pax can maintain the spectacular tension between material affluence and moral detachment.

無形中的基督教根基：解析湯姆・霍蘭《天下：基督教如何塑造西方世界》對西方心智的影響

 

無形中的基督教根基：解析湯姆・霍蘭《天下：基督教如何塑造西方世界》對西方心智的影響

湯姆・霍蘭（Tom Holland）的《天下：基督教如何塑造西方世界》（Dominion: The Making of the Western Mind）提出了一個經過嚴謹考證且引人入勝的論點：現代西方世界的價值觀、倫理觀和社會結構並非單純的世俗成就，而是深刻且不可分割地根植於基督教。霍蘭挑戰了啟蒙運動帶來純粹理性、後宗教道德框架的流行觀念，反而主張許多「世俗」理想實際上是基督教神學概念的直接繼承者。

基督教的革命性倫理轉變

霍蘭首先對比了古代社會（特別是羅馬）與基督教所引入的價值觀。在羅馬世界中，強權即公理，殘酷是一種觀賞性運動，而對弱者、窮人或奴隸的同情幾乎不存在。地位、權力和主張統治地位是至高無上的。

然而，基督教引入了一種激進、反主流文化的倫理體系：

• 卑微者的尊嚴： 它宣揚最後的將是首先的，窮人、病人、邊緣人士在上帝眼中擁有特殊的地位。這在一個崇尚權力、鄙視弱小的世界中是一個革命性的概念。

• 普世之愛與同理心： 「愛你的鄰舍如同愛自己」、關懷陌生人，甚至愛你的敵人，這些誡命為普世同理心奠定了基礎，而這在古典異教思想中是陌生的。

• 每個人的內在價值： 相信所有人，無論社會地位、性別或種族，都是按上帝的形象創造的，這成為後來普世人權概念的基礎原則。這徹底改變了對奴隸制、婦女地位和弱勢群體待遇的看法。

世俗思想中持久的遺產

霍蘭細緻地追溯了這些最初激進的基督教概念如何逐漸滲透西方意識，並成為我們呼吸的空氣。他認為，即使是那些試圖拒絕基督教的思想家，如伏爾泰或尼采，也仍然在一個由基督教根本塑造的道德和知識框架內運作。

• 正義與人權： 現代關於正義、平等和人權的概念——經常由世俗運動倡導——被證明直接源於基督教關於個體生命神聖性以及所有靈魂在上帝面前價值平等的教義。

• 仁慈與福利： 醫院、慈善機構和現代福利國家（如里斯-莫格提到的 NHS）等機構的起源，可以追溯到基督教關懷病患和窮人的誡命。

• 對暴力的「他者化」： 殘酷是道德錯誤的，奴隸制是一種不人道的行為，或者所有人都應享有基本尊嚴——這些在許多現代西方人看來不言而喻的觀念，霍蘭認為是基督教獨特的遺產，而非普遍或自然存在的人類直覺。

實質上，《天下》一書主張，即使西方社會變得越來越世俗化，但其道德羅盤、對人類價值的理解以及其基礎機構，都與其之前兩千年的基督教影響密不可分。

The Unseen Christian Foundations: Unpacking Tom Holland's Dominion on the Shaping of the Western Mind

 

The Unseen Christian Foundations: Unpacking Tom Holland's Dominion on the Shaping of the Western Mind

Tom Holland's Dominion: The Making of the Western Mind presents a meticulously researched and compelling argument:that the values, ethics, and societal structures of the modern Western world are not merely secular achievements but are,in fact, profoundly and inseparably rooted in Christianity. Holland challenges the popular notion that the Enlightenment ushered in a purely rational, post-religious moral framework, instead asserting that many "secular" ideals are direct descendants of Christian theological concepts.

Christianity's Revolutionary Ethical Shift

Holland begins by contrasting the values of ancient societies, particularly Rome, with those introduced by Christianity. In the Roman world, might made right, cruelty was a spectator sport, and compassion for the weak, the poor, or the enslaved was virtually non-existent. Status, power, and the assertion of dominance were paramount.

Christianity, however, introduced a radical, counter-cultural ethical system:

• Dignity of the Lowly: It preached that the last shall be first, that the poor, the sick, and the marginalized held a special place in God's eyes. This was a revolutionary concept in a world that valorized power and despised weakness.

• Universal Love and Empathy: The command to "love thy neighbor as thyself," to care for strangers, and even to love one's enemies, laid the groundwork for a universal empathy that was alien to classical pagan thought.

• The Inherent Worth of Every Individual: The belief that all humans are created in God's image, regardless of social standing, gender, or ethnicity, became the foundational principle for later concepts of universal human rights.This radically transformed views on slavery, the status of women, and the treatment of the vulnerable.

The Enduring Legacy in Secular Thought

Holland meticulously traces how these Christian concepts, initially radical, gradually permeated Western consciousness and became the very air we breathe. He argues that even thinkers who sought to reject Christianity, such as Voltaire or Nietzsche, were still operating within a moral and intellectual framework fundamentally shaped by it.

• Justice and Human Rights: Modern notions of justice, equality, and human rights—often championed by secular movements—are shown to derive directly from Christian teachings about the sanctity of individual life and the equal value of all souls before God.

• Benevolence and Welfare: Institutions like hospitals, charities, and the modern welfare state (such as the NHS, as mentioned by Rees-Mogg) trace their origins to Christian injunctions to care for the sick and the poor.

• The "Othering" of Violence: The very idea that cruelty is morally wrong, that slavery is an abomination, or that all people deserve a basic level of dignity, which seems self-evident to many modern Westerners, is presented by Holland as a distinctly Christian inheritance, rather than a universal or naturally occurring human intuition.

The State's Hidden Tax: Analyzing William Rees-Mogg's Case Against Fiat Currencies in The Crisis of World Inflation

 

The State's Hidden Tax: Analyzing William Rees-Mogg's Case Against Fiat Currencies in The Crisis of World Inflation

Published in 1974, William Rees-Mogg’s The Crisis of World Inflation offers a stark and uncompromising critique of modern monetary systems. The book’s central argument revolves around the historical inevitability of failure for fiat currencies—money declared legal tender by a government but not backed by a physical commodity like gold.

The Inherent Flaw of Fiat Money

Rees-Mogg contends that history offers a clear lesson: all fiat currencies, regardless of the political system that issues them, eventually fail due to inflation. The root cause is the irresistible temptation for governments to print money as a short-term solution to fiscal problems. This process, evident in crises like the post-2008 financial bailout and the mass money creation during the COVID-19 pandemic, inevitably leads to the erosion of currency value.

Inflation as Hidden Taxation

The author defines inflation not merely as rising prices, but fundamentally as a form of hidden taxation—the state taking money from its citizens by stealth. Taxation is politically difficult, but printing money provides governments (whether democratic or autocratic) with an easier, less obvious mechanism to seize purchasing power.

The mechanism is explained using Irving Fisher’s Quantity Theory of Money, summarized by the equation MV = PT:

• M (Money Supply): The amount of money in the economy.

• V (Velocity): The rate at which money is spent.

• P (Prices): The general price level.

• T (Transactions): The number of transactions.

Rees-Mogg argues that when governments significantly increase the money supply (M), the easiest way for the equation to balance is for prices (P) to rise, absorbing the extra currency in the system. The book serves as a foundational warning against government debasement of the currency and implicitly encourages readers to consider real investments that hold value against monetary instability.