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2025年10月6日 星期一

Navigating Change: Taleb's 7 Truths for the Singapore Mid-Career Professional

 

Navigating Change: Taleb's 7 Truths for the Singapore Mid-Career Professional


As a professional in Singapore, you enjoy stability and high efficiency. However, because Singapore is an extremely small and globalized city-state, the impact of Taleb's seven truths is amplified, directly affecting your property values, career competition, and financial planning.


1. Winner-Take-All: How Do You Stay Ahead of the Curve?

Singapore relies on a few key industries (finance, tech) and global firms, making "winner-take-all" effects extremely strong.

  • Your takeaway: You face intense competition from both foreign talent and highly skilled locals. You must continually develop high-value, specialized skills that cannot be automated or easily replicated. For your family's financial security, you must aim for the pinnacle of your field, not just the middle ground.

2. Geopolitical Shifts: What Is Your Safest Asset?

As Asia's economic power grows, Singapore is a magnet for global capital and a safe haven. But its stability makes it highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

  • Your takeaway: Your wealth should be highly diversified. Don't be over-concentrated in the property market. Consider allocating assets to international, physical holdings like gold or global equity funds to protect yourself from systemic risks tied to any single region or currency.

3. The S-Curve and Debt: Is Your Leverage Too High?

Singapore's economy is mature, and growth is slowing, yet housing costs remain steep. Many professionals carry high debt, especially private property mortgages.

  • Your takeaway: You can't expect property values to keep skyrocketing. Strictly control your financial leverage.The international example of assets being frozen and capital moving to gold is a strong reminder that even the world's safest financial rules can change unexpectedly.

4. Immigration's Economic Necessity: Competing for Jobs and Space?

Singapore is the classic example of an economy that absolutely requires foreign talent and labor at every level to function.

  • Your takeaway: Skilled immigrants drive Singapore's efficiency but also create constant competition for jobs and put pressure on housing and infrastructure. You must accept this competitive, high-density environment. Use your voice to engage in discussions about national infrastructure planning to ensure quality of life keeps up with population growth.

5. Two-Way Information Flow: How Do You Stay Sane Online?

Even with a relatively controlled information environment, the volume of global news and social media makes it impossible to manage all narratives.

  • Your takeaway: You need a critical, cross-cultural mindset to filter information. Do not blindly trust any single source. For big decisions (like investments), rely on verified data, not just emotional narratives. Proactively teach your family digital literacy to help them navigate bias and misinformation.

6. The Metastatic Government: How Do You Assess Centralized Power?

Singapore's government is deeply involved in all aspects of the economy and society. This ensures stability but creates high dependence.

  • Your takeaway: Your life relies heavily on the competence and honesty of the government. Your wealth, CPF, healthcare, and housing value are all intertwined with state policy. While you benefit from the system's efficiency, you must understand how this highly centralized system works and ensure your interests are represented in public consultations.

7. Scale Dictates Governance: What Are the City-State's Limits?

Taleb views small city-states like Singapore as historically successful models due to their flexibility and speed.

  • Your takeaway: Singapore's small scale is its greatest advantage, allowing it to adapt quickly to global changes. But this is also its vulnerability. It faces severe consequences if trade or borders are closed. You must leverage Singapore's global connections while remaining vigilant about its survival risks, ensuring your wealth is positioned to be antifragile (able to benefit from disorder).

Navigating Change: Taleb's 7 Truths for the London Mid-Career Professional

 

Navigating Change: Taleb's 7 Truths for the London Mid-Career Professional


As a mid-career professional in London, you're at a critical point for your career and family. Yet, the world is being reshaped by Nassim Nicholas Taleb's seven unconventional truths, directly affecting your finances, job security, and daily life. Here's what these truths mean for you in London and how you can respond.


1. Winner-Take-All: Can You Still Compete at the Top?

London is a global hub where the "winner-take-all" effect is strongest. A few top companies and individuals capture most of the rewards in finance, tech, and culture.

  • Your takeaway: If you aren't at the very top of your industry, you'll feel constant pressure. Focus on niche markets and acquiring irreplaceable skills to avoid being squeezed out of the middle class. Your children will face an even tougher, more concentrated competitive environment.

2. Geopolitical Shifts: Is London's Status Secure?

The West's share of the global economy is shrinking as Asia rises. Taleb warns that the high cost of education, healthcare, and defense in the West is making it less competitive.

  • Your takeaway: Your pension relies on global stability, and the UK's long-term position isn't guaranteed. Diversify your investments beyond traditional UK assets; consider holding gold or investing in emerging markets to hedge against currency and geopolitical risks. Be aware that the high cost of living (healthcare/education) will stress your family budget.

3. The S-Curve and Debt: Is Your Future Saved?

Mature economies carry high debt loads because growth naturally slows down. Governments and individuals rely on borrowing to keep the economy moving.

  • Your takeaway: High UK government debt impacts your future taxes and living costs. Low interest rates may hurt the returns on your savings and pension. Actively review your retirement plan and control your personal leverage, as easy credit can expose your family assets to major risks.

4. Immigration's Economic Necessity: Who Keeps London Running?

Like all mature economies, London relies on immigrants to fill service roles that local workers often avoid (from healthcare to hospitality).

  • Your takeaway: Immigration is essential for keeping London's services affordable and running efficiently. You must accept this reality. Despite political debates, the economic need for labor is constant. This can also mean wage growth remains low in many service sectors.

5. Two-Way Information Flow: How Do You Filter the Noise?

Social media has broken the old one-way flow of information from a few major media outlets. Now, everyone is both a source and a receiver.

  • Your takeaway: You cannot trust any single source of news. Critical thinking and verification are vital for making sound decisions about your investments and politics. Teach your children media literacy to help them navigate the overwhelming and often biased stream of information.

6. The Metastatic Government: Is It Taking Over?

The government's role in the economy has grown relentlessly. Today's governments control a far larger share of GDP than they did a century ago.

  • Your takeaway: UK tax policies, regulations, and public service quality deeply affect your life. Pay close attention to government spending and legislation, as decisions made in Westminster directly impact your income and property. Be ready to adjust to deeper government intervention in your life and business.

7. Scale Dictates Governance: Can a Big City Be Run Well?

Taleb argues that small city-states are historically the most successful governance models, while large, complex economies struggle with efficiency.

  • Your takeaway: London is huge and complex; its governance challenges (traffic, housing costs, maintenance) are baked in. Don't expect perfect efficiency. You need to be flexible and self-reliant instead of depending on government to solve every problem within this massive system.

給新加坡中年人的生存指南:塔雷伯七大真理下的應變之道

 

給新加坡中年人的生存指南:塔雷伯七大真理下的應變之道


身處全球最穩定、最富裕的城市國家之一——新加坡,作為一位中年專業人士,您正享受著高效治理和經濟繁榮。然而,塔雷伯(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)的七大真理在全球範圍內發揮作用,對新加坡這座極度全球化規模小的城市國家而言,影響甚至更為放大。這些真理直接影響您的投資選擇、住房策略,以及面對國家未來挑戰的心態。


1. 贏家通吃的集中效應:如何避免成為被淘汰的中層?

新加坡高度依賴少數頂尖產業(如金融科技、生物科技)和跨國公司,這讓「贏家通吃」的效應極為明顯。

  • 對您的意義: 新加坡的中等收入專業人士面臨的挑戰是巨大的。您必須持續提升高價值、難以自動化的技能,避免被人工智慧和外來人才取代。對您或您的下一代來說,單純的專業資格不足以確保長期的財富和地位,必須追求行業的尖端位置利基市場


2. 地緣政治轉變與效率低下的代價:安全資產的選擇是什麼?

隨著全球經濟重心的轉移,美國和歐洲的份額正在下降,亞洲的影響力增加。然而,塔雷伯對西方體制低效率的警告(如高昂的教育和醫療成本)對所有國家都是警鐘。

  • 對您的意義: 新加坡的穩定性吸引了全球資本,使其貨幣和資產成為避險工具。但這也讓新加坡極易受到地緣政治緊張局勢的影響。您應多元化您的財富,避免過度集中於房地產(雖然穩定,但流動性差),並考慮配置國際化、實物資產(如黃金或全球股票),以對沖單一國家或區域的系統性風險。


3. S 形曲線上的債務問題:高負債是否正在侵蝕您的未來?

新加坡的經濟已達成熟階段,增長速度趨緩,而房價和生活成本卻居高不下。高額的**房屋貸款(尤其是私人住宅)**使許多人背負大量債務。

  • 對您的意義: 處於 S 形曲線的上端意味著您不能期望資產價值會以過去的速度持續飆升。您需要嚴格控制槓桿,避免為了追求短期收益而讓家庭資產暴露於過高的利率風險下。同時,西方因凍結資產導致資本流向黃金的案例,提醒您國際金融體系的安全規則可能隨時改變。


4. 成熟經濟體對移民的經濟需求:如何平衡競爭與生活成本?

新加坡是依賴移民填補各個層級勞動力的典型代表。移民對維持新加坡的經濟運轉、基建和服務業的成本至關重要。

  • 對您的意義: 外來人才確保了新加坡的高效和競爭力,但同時也對您的工資水平和就業機會構成持續的競爭壓力。住房成本、交通擁堵等生活挑戰,往往與人口增長和勞動力需求直接相關。您必須接受並適應這種高競爭環境,同時積極參與有關國家政策和基礎設施的討論,以確保生活質量不被犧牲。


5. 雙向資訊流的復興:如何在大數據時代保持理性?

新加坡擁有嚴格的資訊環境,但社群媒體和全球資訊流的爆炸性增長,仍使得單一機構難以完全控制輿論。

  • 對您的意義: 儘管本地資訊相對受控,但您通過國際平台接收的**「雙向資訊」可能與官方敘事存在衝突。作為一個受過良好教育的中年人,您需要主動培養跨文化和批判性的資訊素養**,理解不同視角的偏見,避免因盲目相信任何單一來源而做出錯誤的投資或生活判斷。


6. 轉移性政府:如何評估高度集中的資源分配?

新加坡政府在經濟中的參與度極高,對資源的分配和社會發展擁有巨大影響力。政府的決策幾乎滲透到生活的方方面面。

  • 對您的意義: 您的生活極度依賴於政府的高效和廉潔。這雖帶來穩定,但也意味著一旦政府決策出現失誤,影響將是巨大的。您的財富、醫療保障、公積金(CPF)和住房價值都與政府政策緊密相連。您需要理解這套高度集中的體制如何運作,並參與到公共諮詢中,以確保您的利益被代表。


7. 規模決定治理:作為「城邦」的優勢與脆弱性是什麼?

塔雷伯指出,小型城邦如新加坡,在歷史上被證明是高效且長壽的治理模式。

  • 對您的意義: 小規模是新加坡成功的關鍵,它能夠快速、靈活地實施政策,應對全球變局。但這也是它的脆弱性所在。一旦邊界關閉或全球貿易中斷,新加坡將面臨比大型國家更嚴重的衝擊。作為中年人,您應利用新加坡的全球連結優勢,但同時保持對其生存風險的警覺,並透過多元化的國際資產配置來**反脆弱(antifragile)**地應對不可預測的未來。

給倫敦中年人的生存指南:塔雷伯七大真理下的應變之道

 

給倫敦中年人的生存指南:塔雷伯七大真理下的應變之道


在倫敦這座充滿活力卻也瞬息萬變的國際大都市,身為一位中年人,您可能正處於事業與家庭的關鍵時刻。然而,我們所處的世界正被塔雷伯(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)所揭示的七大非傳統真理深刻重塑。這些真理並非遙遠的理論,而是直接影響您財務、職涯、甚至日常生活選擇的現實。讓我們一起來看看,這些真理對身在倫敦的您,意味著什麼,以及您該如何應對。


1. 贏家通吃的集中效應:您還能擠進頂尖行列嗎?

倫敦是全球金融、文化與科技的中心,也是「贏家通吃」效應最明顯的體現之地。無論是金融服務、數位科技或藝術創作,少數頂尖公司和個人瓜分了大部分的資源和回報。

  • 對您的意義: 如果您的職業生涯未處於行業頂端,您可能會感到競爭日益激烈,中等收入階層的機會減少。這意味著您需要更專注於利基市場(niche market)或培養不可替代的技能,以避免被邊緣化。您的孩子未來也將面對一個更加集中的競爭環境,單一的技能可能不足以確保長期優勢。


2. 地緣政治轉變與效率低下的代價:倫敦的地位還穩固嗎?

西方國家在全球經濟中的比重逐漸下降,而像中國等新興經濟體正在崛起。塔雷伯指出,西方社會在教育、醫療和國防上的高昂成本,正削弱其競爭力。

  • 對您的意義: 英國和倫敦作為西方的一部分,同樣面臨這些挑戰。您的退休金可能依賴於全球經濟的表現,美元和英鎊的長期地位不再是絕對的保證。您需要多元化您的投資組合,考慮配置黃金或新興市場資產,以對沖貨幣風險和地緣政治變動。同時,英國高昂的醫療和教育費用,將直接影響您的家庭財務規劃。


3. S 形曲線上的債務問題:您的儲蓄足夠應對未來嗎?

成熟經濟體往往伴隨著高額債務,因為成長的動力逐漸減弱。為了維持經濟運轉,政府和個人都更容易依賴借貸。

  • 對您的意義: 英國政府的債務水平對您未來的稅收和生活成本有直接影響。長期低利率政策可能導致退休金收益率下降,您的儲蓄增長緩慢。您應該積極檢視您的退休金計劃,並考慮採用更主動的投資策略,避免過度依賴傳統的債務市場。


4. 成熟經濟體對移民的經濟需求:倫敦的人口結構如何影響您?

像倫敦這樣的大都市需要大量移民來填補勞動市場中本地人不願從事的低薪或服務性工作。這是成熟經濟體無法迴避的現實。

  • 對您的意義: 移民是倫敦經濟不可或缺的一部分,它維持了各種服務的運作和相對較低的成本。您會發現,無論是餐飲、清潔還是其他服務行業,移民勞動力都扮演著關鍵角色。儘管圍繞移民的政治辯論不斷,但其對維持倫敦生活運轉的經濟重要性是顯而易見的。這也可能意味著在某些行業中,勞動力供應充足會抑制工資增長。


5. 雙向資訊流的復興:您如何過濾資訊,避免被操縱?

過去由少數媒體主導的單向資訊流已被社群媒體打破,現在每個人都可以是資訊的發布者,資訊流動變成雙向。這使得權力機構更難以控制輿論。

  • 對您的意義: 您再也無法信任單一的媒體來源。假新聞和錯誤資訊氾濫,需要您具備批判性思考能力獨立求證的精神。這對您的投資決策、家庭教育,甚至理解政治事件都至關重要。培養子女的媒體素養,教導他們辨別資訊的真偽,比以往任何時候都更加重要。


6. 轉移性政府:政府的觸角伸得越來越廣嗎?

政府在 GDP 中的份額持續增長,對經濟和社會的控制力也越來越強。今天的政府,即使在民主國家,其干預範圍也可能超越歷史上的許多獨裁政權。

  • 對您的意義: 英國的稅收政策、監管措施和公共服務的質量,將更深遠地影響您的生活。您可能需要更密切地關注政府的財政開支和立法,因為這些決策會直接影響您的收入、財產和商業活動。在日益擴大的政府面前,個人隱私和自由可能面臨更大的挑戰。


7. 規模決定治理:大城市倫敦的治理效率如何?

塔雷伯認為,成功的治理模式取決於規模。小型城邦往往更高效,而龐大複雜的經濟體則難以優化治理。

  • 對您的意義: 倫敦作為一個巨大的、多元化的國際都市,其治理挑戰顯而易見。交通堵塞、住房成本、基礎設施維護等問題,都是規模過大的結果。您需要理解,期待倫敦政府能像新加坡或杜拜那樣高效運作是不切實際的。因此,在個人層面,您需要更具自給自足的能力適應性,而不是完全依賴政府解決所有問題。


總之,身在倫敦的中年人,面對塔雷伯的七大真理,您的挑戰在於如何在一個日益複雜、不確定且快速變化的世界中保持彈性、精明地規劃未來。這要求您不僅要關注自己的財務,更要提升資訊素養,適應社會變革,並以更具批判性的眼光看待周遭的一切。

納西姆・塔雷伯論現代世界的七個非傳統事實


納西姆・塔雷伯論現代世界的七個非傳統事實

在一場近期的講座中,著名哲學家兼風險專家納西姆・尼可拉斯・塔雷伯(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)剖析了現代世界的結構,認為我們的教育體系根本無法理解其核心的現實。塔雷伯借鑒了《黑天鵝》和《反脆弱》中的概念,闡述了七個主導我們當今社會、經濟和資訊環境的「事實」。


1. 贏家通吃的集中效應

塔雷伯斷言,我們生活在一個由集中贏家通吃效應主導的世界。與過去相比,現在只有少數實體——無論是個人、作家還是公司——獲得了絕大部分的回報。

  • 生活案例:文化與財富。 在文化上,所有人都在閱讀同一本書(少數作者賺走了大部分的錢),催生了像《哈利波特》創作者這樣的巨星。塔雷伯警告,當這種集中變得「僵固不化」且難以被取代時,問題就出現了,這會導致他所稱的技術封建主義

  • 生活案例:傳染病。 連結性加速了這種集中。黑死病花費了三個世紀才傳播到已知世界,而像 COVID-19這樣的新病毒卻能在約一週內主宰地球,顯示單一因素如何迅速壟斷整個系統。


2. 地緣政治轉變與效率低下的代價

我們對地緣政治主導地位的傳統理解是有缺陷的,因為歷史學家和統計學家難以掌握複利增長。隨著時間推移,增長率的微小差異會導致巨大的結果。

  • 西方的衰落: 美國和歐盟在全球經濟中的份額正在下降,而中國的份額(按購買力平價計算)卻上升到 20% 以上。塔雷伯警告,這一轉變必然會導致全球超級大國地位的更迭。

  • 成本病: 西方經濟體苦於三種關鍵的效率低下:教育成本過高(10 萬美元的教育在其他地方可能便宜兩個數量級)、醫療保健費用飛漲,以及過於昂貴的軍事體系。塔雷伯以臭名昭著的**「53,000 美元軍用垃圾桶」**為例,說明西方在國防上花費了數萬億美元,但獲得的價值卻不如花費三分之一的競爭對手。


3. S 形曲線上的債務問題

經濟增長遵循一條 S 形曲線:它始於加速的、凸性的回報,但最終會因飽和而放緩。

  • 債務陷阱: 達到成熟的國家(如歐洲或美國),由於大規模增長的動機減少(例如,人們已經有車,不需要五輛車),卻諷刺性地背負了最多的債務。它們陷入了一個陷阱:需要靠成長來償債,但其成熟度已無法提供這種成長。

  • 生活案例:美元與黃金。 凍結以外幣計價的外國資產(例如美國凍結俄羅斯資產)的政治決定,嚴重損害了美元作為安全全球貨幣的地位。這個單一的錯誤正在鼓勵全球各地的央行——包括金磚國家——將其儲備轉向黃金,導致黃金價格上漲了約 35%。


4. 成熟經濟體對移民的經濟需求

在成熟的經濟體中,當地人通常對低薪或艱難的服務性工作不再感興趣(例如,清潔浴室、農業)。

  • 生活案例:腦外科醫生的困境。 如果沒有移民來填補這些必要的職位空缺,像腦外科醫生這樣的高技能人才將被迫花時間修剪自己的草坪或學習砌磚來彌補勞動力缺口。

  • 市場的意願: 塔雷伯認為,經濟現實凌駕於政治言論之上。在 COVID 疫情期間發生輕微的勞動力短缺時,服務價格(如餐館)便飛漲。義大利的梅洛尼(Meloni)等以反移民綱領競選的政客,最終仍然看到移民人數增加,因為市場需要勞動力。


5. 雙向信息流的復興

過去 100 年,資訊流是單向的,人們只是被動地從「主流媒體」或「官方媒體」中接受說教。而在傳統上,資訊是通過交易和傳遞(例如在理髮店)流通的。

  • 生活案例:掩蓋真相的終結。 社群媒體現在恢復了這種雙向流動,使得權力結構無法完全控制敘事。塔雷伯提出一個鮮明的例子:像清除加沙族裔這樣的事件在 2025 年無法被掩蓋,但在 1997 年,它卻很容易被美國廣播公司(ABC)和哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)等媒體所掌控。


6. 轉移性政府

政府在 GDP 中佔有的份額一直在持續且劇烈地攀升。100 年前,政府佔 GDP 的比例不到 10%,而如今在法國等地方則高達 70%。這種大規模的擴張意味著,即使是當今民主國家的政府,對經濟的控制和影響力也遠超過歷史上的獨裁政權。


7. 規模決定治理

最後,塔雷伯強調,成功的治理模式完全取決於規模

  • 格言: 他總結自己的政治哲學時說,他支持:「在國家層面上是自由主義者,在州層面上是共和主義者,在市政層面上是民主主義者,而在家庭層面上是共產主義者。」這意味著規則、體系和控制必須根據社群的大小進行調整。

  • 歷史上的成功: 歷史上最成功的治理模式一直是小型城邦,如杜拜、新加坡和威尼斯(曾持續了一千年)。像美國這樣龐大經濟體的複雜性和規模,自然會使其偏離最佳治理模式。


Nassim Taleb's Seven Unconventional Truths About the Modern World

 

Nassim Taleb's Seven Unconventional Truths About the Modern World

In a recent lecture, renowned philosopher and risk expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb dissects the structure of the modern world, arguing that the educational system is profoundly ill-equipped to understand its core realities. Drawing on concepts from The Black Swan and Antifragile, Taleb outlines seven "truths" that govern our society, economy, and information landscape today.


1. The Reality of Winner-Take-All Effects

Taleb asserts that we live in a world dominated by concentration and winner-take-all effects. Unlike in the past, where success was distributed more broadly, a few entities—be they individuals, authors, or companies—now capture the vast majority of the rewards.

  • Life Example: Culture and Wealth. Culturally, everyone reads the same book (a few authors make most of the money), creating a few megastars like the creators of Harry Potter. The fundamental issue arises when this concentration becomes "sticky at the top" and resistant to displacement, leading to a state he calls techno-feudalism.

  • Life Example: Contagion. Connectivity accelerates this concentration. The Bubonic Plague took 300 years to cross the known world, while a new virus like COVID-19 can dominate the planet in about a week, demonstrating how a single factor can quickly monopolize an entire system.


2. Geopolitical Shifts and the Cost of Inefficiency

Our traditional understanding of geopolitical dominance is flawed because historians and statisticians struggle to grasp compound growth. Small differences in growth rates over time lead to monstrously large outcomes.

  • The Decline of the West: The US and EU shares of the world economy are declining, while China's share is rising to over 20% (in purchasing power parity). This shift, Taleb warns, will inevitably lead to a change in global superpower status.

  • The Cost Disease: Western economies suffer from three critical inefficiencies: ridiculously high education costs (a $100,000 education may be two orders of magnitude cheaper elsewhere), soaring healthcare expenses, and an overly expensive military complex. Taleb points to the infamous $53,000 military trash can as an example of how the West spends a trillion dollars on defense but gets less value than competitors who spend a third of that.


3. The Problem of Debt on the S-Curve

Economic growth follows an S-curve: it starts with accelerating, convex returns before eventually slowing down due to saturation.

  • The Debt Trap: Countries that have reached maturity (like Europe or the US), where the incentive for massive growth is diminished (e.g., people already own a car, they don't need five), are paradoxically the ones with the most debt. They are in a trap where they need the growth that their maturity no longer allows to service their debt.

  • Life Example: The Dollar vs. Gold. The political decision to freeze foreign assets denominated in the home currency (such as the US freezing Russian assets) has profoundly damaged the dollar’s status as a safe global currency. This single blunder is encouraging central banks globally—including the BRICS nations—to move their reserves into gold, which has seen a rally of around 35%.


4. The Economic Necessity of Immigration

In mature economies, locals are often no longer interested in low-wage or difficult service work (e.g., cleaning bathrooms, farming).

  • Life Example: The Brain Surgeon's Dilemma. Without immigration to fill these necessary roles, a highly skilled worker like a brain surgeon would be forced to spend time mowing their own lawn or learning masonry to fill the labor gap.

  • The Market's Will: Taleb argues that economic reality overrides political rhetoric. When a small labor shortage occurred during COVID, prices for services (like restaurants) shot up. Politicians who campaign on anti-immigration platforms, such as Meloni in Italy, often see immigration increase because the market demands the labor.


5. The Return of Two-Way Information Flow

The last 100 years were characterized by a one-way flow of information, where people were passive recipients of lectures from "big media" or "state media." Traditionally, information was traded and conveyed (e.g., at the barber shop).

  • Life Example: The End of Cover-Ups. Social media has now restored this two-way flow, making it impossible for power structures to control the narrative. Taleb offers a stark example: an event like the ethnic cleansing of Gaza could not be covered up in 2025 because of social media; however, it would have been easily controlled by ABC and CBS in 1997.


6. The Metastatic Government

Government has been relentlessly and dramatically creeping up as a share of GDP. Where it represented less than 10% of GDP 100 years ago, it now constitutes up to 70% in places like France. This vast expansion means that today's government, even in democracies, has a far greater reach and control over the economy than historical dictatorships.


7. Scale Dictates Governance

Finally, Taleb emphasizes that the successful model of governance depends entirely on scale.

  • The Aphorism: He summarizes his political philosophy by saying he is: "libertarian at a national level, republican at a state level, democrat at a municipal level, and communist at a family level." This means that the rules, systems, and controls must be adjusted for the size of the community.

  • Historical Success: The most successful models of governance have historically been small city-stateslike Dubai, Singapore, and Venice, which survived for a thousand years. The complexity and size of a massive economy like the US naturally drive it further away from optimal governance.


Skin in the Game: Why Your "Fund Manager" is a Fraud

 

Skin in the Game: Why Your "Fund Manager" is a Fraud


Let me tell you something, and pay attention, because it’s about your money, your future, and the sheer intellectual dishonesty that infects the very core of what they call "finance." They, the suits, the "experts" in their shiny offices,managing your hard-earned cash, are not just incompetent; they are operating under a system that incentivizes fraud. And I don't mean fraud in the legal sense, necessarily, but in the deeper, more ancient, more dangerous sense of operating without Skin in the Game.

You're told to invest, to trust the "professionals." They offer you a "fund," promising superior returns. How do they do this? By playing a rigged game, designed to extract wealth from you, the productive member of society, and transfer it to them, the parasitical "advisors."

First, the Management Fee. Two percent, they say. Or one, or even half a percent. Sounds small, right? Wrong. This is pure rent-seeking. They take this regardless of performance. Whether they make you money or lose you money, their yacht payments are secure. This incentivizes asset gathering, not risk management. A fool can gather assets; it takes wisdom to manage risk. But wisdom doesn't guarantee a steady stream of passive income. So they gather. They market.They talk. And they take. Where is their Skin in the Game? If they lose your money, do they give back their fees? Do they suffer alongside you? No. Their downside is capped; yours is not. This is pure asymmetry.

Then, the pièce de résistance: the Incentive Fee. "Twenty percent of the profits," they beam. "We only get paid if we perform!" Sounds fair, doesn't it? It’s a trick, an optical illusion for the unsuspecting. It’s an option on your portfolio, and you, the investor, are selling it to them for free.

Think about it:

  • If the fund makes money, they take their 20% cut. They profit.

  • If the fund loses money, they don't give you 20% of the loss back. They simply make nothing on top of their management fee.

This is the very definition of asymmetry of consequences. They participate in the upside; you own all the downside.Your pain is theirs, but their gain is also theirs. They can take wild, foolish risks with your money, knowing that if it pays off, they win big. If it doesn't, they just don't get the bonus this year. But don't worry, the management fee keeps coming.

And what about this "High-Water Mark"? "We won't charge an incentive fee until we've recovered previous losses," they promise. More deception. When a fund goes deep underwater, when the losses are too great to reasonably recover, what do these "managers" do? They simply shut down the old fund and open a new one. The high-water mark vanishes. Your losses are cemented, and they're back to collecting fees on a fresh slate. It's like a bad chef burning a meal, then simply getting a new kitchen and expecting you to pay for the next attempt. This is not how humans with Skin in the Gameoperate. A builder whose bridge collapses doesn't just get to build a new one and expect full payment. No, he faces the consequences.

Finally, the Benchmark. Oh, the benchmark! They pick an index, often one that has lower volatility or is simply differentfrom their own high-risk strategies. Then, when the market is booming, their inherently riskier portfolio easily "outperforms" this mismatched benchmark. And boom, incentive fees activated! It's like claiming to be a faster runner than a turtle simply because you're a cheetah. It's a dishonest comparison, designed solely to trigger their bonus. They exploit the relative volatility between their chosen strategy and the irrelevant yardstick. They are paid for luck, for general market beta, or for simply taking more risk than their benchmark, not for true skill.

How to Remedy This (Simple, Obvious, Ancient Wisdom)

My remedy is brutally simple, and it comes from millennia of human wisdom: Skin in the Game.

  1. Mandatory Co-Investment: If a manager wants to manage your money, a substantial portion of their own personal wealth must be invested in that very same fund, and on the exact same terms as yours. Not just a token amount, but enough to hurt if the fund fails. This aligns interests. If they lose your money, they lose their own.

  2. No Asymmetric Fees: Abolish the "2 and 20" model. If there's an incentive fee, it must be paired with an incentive penalty. If they outperform, they get a bonus. If they underperform, they pay you a penalty out of their personal co-investment. This creates symmetry. Or, even better, simply stick to a very low, transparent, performance-linked feethat actually decreases if they fail to meet specific, long-term, absolute targets (not relative to some arbitrary benchmark).

  3. No Fund Closures to Reset High-Water Marks: If a fund goes underwater, the manager is chained to that fund until the high-water mark is genuinely surpassed, or they lose their co-investment. No reboots. No convenient disappearances.

  4. Meaningful Benchmarks (or None at All): If a benchmark is used, it must truly reflect the risk and investment universe of the fund. Or, even better, focus on absolute returns net of inflation and a risk-free rate. You're trying to grow your wealth, not beat some arbitrary index that has no bearing on your life.

These simple rules would purge the system of charlatans. It would ensure that those who manage your money are true fiduciaries, with their fates truly intertwined with yours. It's not complicated. It's not academic. It's just common sense,applied with the wisdom of the ancients. If they don't have Skin in the Game, they are not to be trusted. Period.