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2026年2月20日 星期五

當未來不確定時:政治不穩定如何將人才推向穩定國家

 當未來不確定時:政治不穩定如何將人才推向穩定國家


一個前途未卜的國家,失去的不只是投資與信心,更是人才——尤其是最優秀的那群人。這種「人才外流」(brain drain)是常被忽略卻極具決定性的競爭優勢:當政治、安全或法治顯得脆弱時,有選擇的家庭會選擇把子女送往更穩定的地方。NVIDIA 執行長黃仁勳(Jensen Huang)的故事,便生動展示了政治不穩定如何悄悄將人力資本推向海外——往往在國家意識到損失之前就已發生。

黃仁勳出生於台灣,童年部分時間在泰國度過,父親是化學與儀器工程師,協助建立煉油廠。約 1973–1974 年,全家遷至曼谷,但政治氣氛很快影響長期計畫。他在 2025 年 12 月接受《喬·羅根體驗》(The Joe Rogan Experience)訪談時回憶,泰國頻繁的軍事政變與街頭軍隊讓父母對國家安全與穩定感到不安。「你知道,泰國總是政變,」他說。「士兵起義,某天街上就出現坦克與部隊。」

當時黃仁勳九歲,哥哥十一歲。父母擔心泰國不適合孩子未來發展,決定將兩兄弟送往華盛頓州塔科馬(Tacoma)的親戚家——這些親戚他們從未見過。從此,黃仁勳在美國就學,最終領導全球最具影響力的科技公司之一。他的軌跡不僅是個人成功故事,更是政治不確定性如何悄悄輸出國家未來創新者的案例。

當一個國家顯得不穩定——無論是政變、長期政治危機或制度薄弱——父母與年輕專業人士會開始問:「孩子在哪裡安全?他們在哪裡能無中斷地發展職業?」回答不佳的國家失去的不只是學生或短期工作者,而是整代潛在企業家、科學家與工程師。例如泰國,近年可見移民潮上升,尤其是受過教育的年輕人加入「Let’s Move Abroad」等線上社群,一度在四天內成長至超過五十萬成員後被政府關閉。其他政治動盪國家也有類似模式,人才悄悄遷往美國、加拿大、澳洲或西歐。

這種人才外流的經濟成本常被低估。像黃仁勳這樣的人看似個案,但乘以成千上萬家庭,效果便成結構性:感覺不穩定的國家最終補貼了更穩定國家的創新與稅基。穩定國家則獲得技能勞工、全球網絡、僑民投資與文化軟實力。長此以往,形成自我強化差距:國家越不穩定,人才越外流;人才越外流,越難解決根本問題。

對任何憂心長期競爭力的國家,政治與社會穩定不僅是治理議題,更是經濟與人口議題。一個清晰可預測的未來本身就是競爭優勢——它讓人才留在國內,而非遠赴海外尋求安全與機會。



When the Future Is Uncertain: How Political Instability Drives “Brain Drain” to Stable Countries

 When the Future Is Uncertain: How Political Instability Drives “Brain Drain” to Stable Countries


A country with an uncertain future does not just lose investment and confidence; it loses people—especially the most talented. This “brain drain” is a quiet but decisive competitive edge that many policymakers forget: when politics, security, or the rule of law feel fragile, families with options choose to send their children to more stable places. The story of NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, offers a vivid example of how political instability can push human capital abroad—often before the country even realises what it has lost.

Huang was born in Taiwan and spent part of his childhood in Thailand, where his father worked as a chemical and instrumentation engineer helping to build an oil refinery. Around 1973–1974, the family moved to Bangkok, but the political climate soon shaped their long‑term plans. In a December 2025 interview on The Joe Rogan Experience, Huang recalled that Thailand’s repeated military coups and soldiers on the streets made his parents uneasy about the country’s safety and stability. “You know, in Thailand there are coups all the time,” he said. “Soldiers rise up, and then one day there are tanks and troops out on the streets.”

At the time, Huang was nine years old and his older brother nearly eleven. Concerned that Thailand might not be a secure environment for their children’s future, their parents decided to send the boys to live with relatives in Tacoma, Washington—people they had never met in person. From there, Huang attended school in the United States, eventually rising to lead one of the world’s most influential technology companies. His trajectory is not just a personal success story; it is also a case study in how political uncertainty can quietly export a country’s future innovators.

When a nation appears unstable—whether through coups, chronic political crises, or weak institutions—parents and young professionals start to ask: Where will my children be safe? Where can they build a career without constant disruption? Countries that answer those questions poorly do not lose only students or temporary workers; they lose entire generations of potential entrepreneurs, scientists, and engineers. Thailand, for instance, has seen a visible rise in emigration, particularly among young, educated Thais who join online communities such as “Let’s Move Abroad,” which once grew to over half a million members in just four days before being shut down. Similar patterns can be seen in other politically volatile countries, where talented individuals quietly relocate to the United States, Canada, Australia, or Western Europe.

The economic cost of this brain drain is often underestimated. A single person like Jensen Huang may seem like one outlier, but multiplied across thousands of families, the effect becomes structural: the country that feels unstable ends up subsidising the innovation and tax base of more stable ones. Stable countries, in turn, gain not only skilled workers but also global networks, diaspora investment, and cultural soft power. Over time, this creates a self‑reinforcing gap: the more unstable a country feels, the more talent leaves; the more talent leaves, the harder it becomes to fix the underlying problems.

For any nation worried about its long‑term competitiveness, political and social stability is not just a governance issue; it is an economic and demographic one. A clear, predictable future is itself a competitive advantage—one that keeps brains at home instead of sending them abroad in search of safety and opportunity.