2026年2月10日 星期二

從帝國到多元:英國移民史簡述

 從帝國到多元:英國移民史簡述



文章(繁體中文):
英國的移民歷史與其帝國過去密不可分。數百年來,英國作為全球帝國的中心,吸引了來自世界各地的士兵、工人與商人。然而,現代意義上的大規模移民始於1945年之後,當時英國亟需重建被戰爭摧毀的家園。

1947年的《波蘭安置法》是英國第一部關於大規模移民的法律,允許成千上萬的波蘭戰時盟友留下協助重建。一年後,《1948年英國國籍法》將所有英聯邦居民定義為「英國及殖民地公民」,賦予他們在英國居住與工作的權利,為來自加勒比、印度、巴基斯坦及非洲的移民潮開啟大門。

1950至1960年代,英國因勞力短缺而依賴移民,特別是在運輸與醫療領域。然而,快速的人口變化也引發社會與政治緊張。1962年的《英聯邦移民法》首次對移民設限,之後在1970年代又逐步加強。

隨著時間推進,移民來源從英聯邦擴展至歐洲與世界其他地區,直至脫歐前後,英國再度面臨如何在經濟需求、國家認同與社會凝聚之間取得平衡的課題。

今日的英國已成為歐洲最具族裔與文化多樣性的國家之一。其移民歷程既反映了帝國遺緒,也展現了不斷追求現代國家認同的進程。


From Empire to Diversity: A Brief History of UK Immigration

 From Empire to Diversity: A Brief History of UK Immigration




Britain’s immigration story is deeply entwined with its imperial past. For centuries, the United Kingdom stood at the centre of a global empire, drawing soldiers, workers, and traders from across the world. Yet, modern immigration truly began after 1945, when the nation sought to rebuild from the devastation of the Second World War.

The Polish Resettlement Act of 1947 marked Britain’s first mass immigration law, allowing thousands of wartime allies to settle and help reconstruct the country. A year later, the British Nationality Act of 1948 defined all Commonwealth citizens as “Citizens of the United Kingdom and Colonies,” granting them the right to live and work in Britain. This paved the way for large-scale migration from the Caribbean, India, Pakistan, and later Africa—symbolised by the arrival of the HMT Empire Windrush in 1948.

In the 1950s and 1960s, Britain’s post-war labour shortages made immigration essential, particularly for public services like transport and healthcare. Yet rapid demographic change brought new social and political tensions. The Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1962 introduced the first major restrictions, followed by further controls through the 1970s.

Later decades saw immigration shift from Commonwealth arrivals to European and global migration, culminating in debates around free movement under the European Union and recent reforms after Brexit.

Today, the United Kingdom stands as one of the most ethnically and culturally diverse countries in Europe. Its immigration history reflects both the legacy of empire and the ongoing effort to balance economic needs, national identity, and social cohesion.

2026年2月7日 星期六

解構華爾街的幻象:反直覺財富架構

 

解構華爾街的幻象:反直覺財富架構



1. 減少「摩擦」(資本的無聲白蟻)

  • 影響: 二十歲世代身處 Robinhood 或富途等「零佣金」App 時代,極易被誘惑進行頻繁交易。他們往往沒意識到「點差」與「稅收」正在啃食未來的複利引擎。

  • 對策: 採取「極致慣性」。將每一次交易視為一次資本洩漏。目標是讓換手率趨近於零,專注於以「十年」為單位的持有,而非以「天」計。

2. 現金流勝過「報告盈餘」

  • 影響: 許多年輕投資者被「題材」和營收成長(如科技新創)所迷惑,卻不看公司在支出後是否真的留住了現金。

  • 對策: 學習閱讀現金流量表。無視「每股盈餘」(EPS)的炒作,尋找「自由現金流」。如果一家公司只是「燃燒資本的跑步機」,無論社交媒體多熱門都要遠離。

3. 高勝率集中 vs. 盲目分散

  • 影響: 傳統觀念告訴二十歲世代買入廣泛的 ETF。這雖然安全,但也保證了平庸,並剝奪了深度研究帶來的「認知獎賞」。

  • 對策: 建立「集中觀察名單」。與其持有 50 隻半懂不懂的股票,不如深入理解 5 家企業,深到當價格合適時,你有勇氣讓每家公司佔據你投資組合的 20%。

4. 價格的地心引力(戰勝無風險利率)

  • 影響: 在「FOMO」(恐懼錯過)的世界裡,年輕人常以糟糕的價格買入偉大的公司,導致多年零回報。

  • 對策: 精通「盈餘收益率」計算。永遠將股票的潛在回報與長債利率對比。如果「風險溢價」不夠高,要有持有現金耐心等待的紀律。

5. 抵抗「社交化」的市場噪音

  • 影響: 財經抖音與 YouTube 營造了一種「無所事事就是虧損」的氛圍。

  • 對策: 建立「認知過濾器」。將「不作為」視為一種主動且高價值的行動。培養心理定力,在市場泡沫中甘於忍受孤獨,冷眼旁觀。

Decoding the Wall Street Illusion: Counter-Intuitive Wealth Architecture

 

Decoding the Wall Street Illusion: Counter-Intuitive Wealth Architecture



1. Minimize "Friction" (The Silent Termite of Capital)

  • Impact: Living in an era of "zero-commission" apps like Robinhood or Futu, 20-year-olds are lured into hyper-active trading. They often don't realize that bid-ask spreads and taxes are eating their future "compounding engine."

  • Action: Adopt "Extreme Inertia." View every trade as a potential leak. Aim for a turnover rate that approaches zero, focusing on holding for decades rather than days.

2. Cash Flow over "Reporting Earnings"

  • Impact: Many young investors are mesmerized by "hype" and revenue growth (e.g., tech startups) without looking at whether the company actually keeps any cash after expenses.

  • Action: Learn to read a Cash Flow Statement. Ignore the "Earnings Per Share" (EPS) hype and look for "Free Cash Flow." If a company is a "capital-burning treadmill," stay away regardless of the social media buzz.

3. High-Conviction Concentration vs. Blind Diversification

  • Impact: Conventional wisdom tells Gen Z to buy broad ETFs. While safe, this guarantees mediocrity and prevents the "Cognitive Reward" of deep research.

  • Action: Build a "Concentrated Watchlist." Instead of owning 50 stocks you barely understand, aim to understand 5 businesses so deeply that you have the courage to make them 20% of your portfolio each when the price is right.

4. The Gravity of Price (Beating the Risk-Free Rate)

  • Impact: In a world of "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out), 20-year-olds often buy great companies at terrible prices, leading to zero returns for years.

  • Action: Master the "Earnings Yield" calculation. Always compare a stock’s potential return to the long-term government bond rate. If the "risk premium" isn't high enough, have the discipline to hold cash and wait.

5. Resisting the "Socialized" Market Noise

  • Impact: Finance TikTok and YouTube create an environment where "doing nothing" feels like losing.

  • Action: Build a "Cognitive Filter." Treat "inaction" as a deliberate, high-value move. Develop the psychological "gravitas" to sit out of market bubbles.

奇點生存指南:馬斯克的十大預言與二十歲世代的應對之道

 

奇點生存指南:馬斯克的十大預言與二十歲世代的應對之道



1. 奇點臨近(2026年AI智力超越人類)

  • 影響: 你的專業技能可能在大學畢業或初階培訓完成前就已過時。

  • 對策: 停止在「計算」或「記憶」上競爭。將重心轉向高階戰略決策與跨領域整合能力。

2. 中國的能源霸權

  • 影響: 製造業與算力將聚集在電力最廉價且穩定的地區(「電即貨幣」時代)。

  • 對策: 若從事工程類,請專注於「綠色電子」(光伏、電動車、智能電網),這是硬體基建的財富所在。

3. 比特與原子之戰(白領先死,藍領後死)

  • 影響: 數位辦公(比特)首當其衝消失;體力勞動(原子)雖有緩衝,終將面臨 Optimus 機器人大軍。

  • 對策: 學習「塑造原子」。具備 AI 管理能力的技術人員(如機器人車隊技師)比純數據處理或中層管理更安全。

4. 經濟學的終結(UHI 與極度通縮)

  • 影響: 隨著生產力爆炸與成本暴跌,「存錢養老」的概念將變得毫無意義。

  • 對策: 投資「數位資產」與「個人品牌」。當物質趨於免費,「注意力」與「獨特體驗」將成為唯一的稀缺資源。

5. 芯片的物理極限

  • 影響: 科技戰爭將從「縮小晶體管」轉向「優化架構與海量電力」。

  • 對策: 不要賭「中國國家隊」追不上。專注於軟體優化與系統級架構,而非僅僅執著於硬體規格。

6. 傳統教育的崩塌

  • 影響: 「教育內卷」與標準化考試變得毫無價值。學位的信號功能將消失。

  • 對策: 成為「提問專家」。你向 Grok/AI 提出正確問題的能力,比在停滯領域拿個博士學位更有價值。

7. AI 安全與追求真相

  • 影響: 你將生活在一個充滿 AI 生成謊言與「政治正確」幻覺的世界。

  • 對策: 培養激進的批判性思考。學會驗證「底層真相」,尋找優先考慮客觀現實而非敘事邏輯的 AI 平台(如 xAI)。

8. 模擬理論(「有趣」是唯一生存法則)

  • 影響: 當 AI 處理所有瑣事時,生活可能顯得虛無或像一場遊戲。

  • 對策: 做一個「有趣的 NPC」。追求高熵、具創造力且獨特的人生路徑。平庸且可預測的生活最容易被自動化或「關機」。

9. 長壽逃逸速度

  • 影響: 二十歲的你可能活到 150 歲。職業生涯不是 40 年的短跑,而是 100 年的馬拉松。

  • 對策: 優先考慮生物健康與神經可塑性。將身體視為需要定期更新與維護的「代碼」。

10. 終極競爭:中國 vs. xAI vs. Google

  • 影響: 全球地緣政治將取決於你「接入」哪套 AGI 系統。

  • 對策: 同時理解西方與中國的科技生態。在技術與文化上具備「雙語能力」將是你最終的對沖手段。

The Survival Manual for the Singularity: Musk’s 10 Prophecies and Gen Z’s Countermove

 

The Survival Manual for the Singularity: Musk’s 10 Prophecies and Gen Z’s Countermove



1. The Singularity (AI Surpassing Human Intelligence by 2026)

  • Impact: Your professional skills may become obsolete before you even finish your university degree or entry-level training.

  • Action: Stop competing on "calculation" or "memorization." Shift focus to high-level strategic decision-making and cross-disciplinary synthesis.

2. The Energy Dominance of China

  • Impact: Manufacturing and computing power will cluster where electricity is cheapest and most stable (the "Power is Currency" era).

  • Action: If you are in engineering, focus on "Green Electrons" (Photovoltaics, EVs, Smart Grids). This is where the hard infrastructure wealth lies.

3. Bit vs. Atom (White-Collar vs. Blue-Collar Displacement)

  • Impact: Digital desk jobs (Bits) disappear first. Physical labor (Atoms) lasts longer but will eventually face the Optimus robot invasion.

  • Action: Learn to "Shape Atoms." Skilled trades combined with AI management (e.g., Robot Fleet Technician) will be safer than pure data entry or mid-level management.

4. The End of Traditional Economics (UHI & Extreme Deflation)

  • Impact: The concept of "saving for retirement" becomes irrelevant as productivity explodes and costs plummet.

  • Action: Invest in "Digital Assets" and "Personal Brand." When goods are free, "Attention" and "Unique Experiences" become the only scarce resources.

5. The Physical Limit of Chips

  • Impact: The tech war moves from "narrower transistors" to "better architecture and massive power."

  • Action: Don't bet against "China Inc." catching up. Focus on software optimization and system-level architecture rather than just hardware specs.

6. The Collapse of Traditional Education

  • Impact: "Education Involution" (Neijuan) and standardized testing become useless. Degrees lose their signaling power.

  • Action: Become a "Power Prompter." Your ability to ask Grok/AI the right questions is more valuable than any PhD in a stagnant field.

7. AI Security & The Pursuit of Truth

  • Impact: You will live in a world of AI-generated lies and "Politically Correct" hallucinations.

  • Action: Cultivate radical critical thinking. Learn to verify "Ground Truth" and seek out AI platforms (like xAI) that prioritize objective reality over narrative.

8. Simulation Theory (The Requirement of Being "Interesting")

  • Impact: Life may feel nihilistic or "game-like" as AI handles all mundane tasks.

  • Action: Be an "Interesting NPC." Pursue high-entropy, creative, and eccentric paths. Boring, predictable lives are the most likely to be automated or "shut down."

9. Longevity Escape Velocity

  • Impact: Your 20-year-old self might live to see 150. Your career isn't a 40-year sprint; it’s a 100-year marathon.

  • Action: Prioritize biological health and neuro-plasticity. Treat your body as "Code" that needs regular updates and maintenance.

10. The Final Rivalry: China vs. xAI vs. Google

  • Impact: Global geopolitics will be defined by which AGI system you are "plugged into."

  • Action: Understand both Western and Chinese tech ecosystems. Being "Bilingual" in technology and culture will be your ultimate hedge.

幻滅理想的先知:吉拉斯如何預見「新階級」的失敗

 

幻滅理想的先知:吉拉斯如何預見「新階級」的失敗

米洛萬·吉拉斯(Milovan Djilas)被譽為「共產世界的先知」,他曾是南斯拉夫的高層革命家,後來成為該體制最深刻的內部批判者。他從堅定的信仰者轉變為異議人士,源於他意識到共產理想在其成功之時便已被背叛。

「新階級」的興起

吉拉斯最主要的貢獻在於揭露了「新階級」的存在。他主張共產革命推翻舊秩序後,並未如馬克思預測般消滅階級。相反地,它創造了一個由黨政官員組成的官僚集團,他們透過對國家的絕對控制權,變相擁有了生產資料。

  • 目標的腐敗:這個新階級比他們所取代的資本家更加壓迫且貪汙腐化,因為他們擁有不受制衡的權力。

  • 系統性的背叛:他們聲稱代表工人階級,實際上卻是透過剝削人民來維持自己的地位與特權。

  • 制度化的不平等:在「平等」的偽裝下,統治精英與勞工階級之間的鴻溝反而日益擴大。

必然滑向集權主義

吉拉斯的警告與瑪格麗特·柴契爾等領導人的觀察不謀而合,即中央計劃必然導致人權的被壓制。

  • 權力陷阱:當國家控制所有資源,它就獲得了掌控每個人生活的絕對權力。

  • 異議的終結:為了保護中央計劃與「新階級」的利益,政權必須廢除言論自由並制度化恐懼感。

  • 歷史的失敗:從史達林的大清洗到毛澤東的文化大革命,對生命與社會倫理的漠視,正是那種重視黨紀勝過個人尊嚴的體制下的必然結果。

吉拉斯總結認為,終結這種腐敗的唯一方法是終結一黨專政並還政於民——這一預言最終預示了東歐集團的瓦解。