The Self‑Fulfilling Prophecy of Group Psychology: How Hong Kong’s Recent History Echoes Its Annual Car‑Kung Divination
Over the past decade, Hong Kong’s annual Car‑Kung (Che Kung) Temple fortune‑stick draws have produced a sequence of mid‑level “middle” sticks that, read together, sketch a powerful narrative about collective psychology and self‑fulfilling expectations. When mapped onto major social and political events in each year, the sticks read less like random omens and more like a mirror of the city’s own fears, hopes, and choices—each year reinforcing the next in a psychological feedback loop.
2018: “Ancestral Fields and Every Inch of Land”
Stick 21, “Ancestral fields accumulated over years… every inch of land is worth its weight in gold,” came as Hong Kong was still grappling with extreme housing inequality and sky‑high property prices. The line about “do not despise how much or how little” fit a public increasingly aware that even small gains in housing or savings mattered. Yet the same year also saw growing anxiety that any loss of “land” (literal or symbolic) would be deeply felt, foreshadowing later protests over land‑use and housing policy. The stick’s emphasis on preserving what is already held reinforced a defensive, risk‑averse mindset: people were less willing to gamble on radical change, even as frustration simmered.
2019: “Illusory Fields and Empty Bread”
Stick 86, “Stone fields yield no harvest; painted cakes cannot feed the hungry,” arrived just before the 2019‑20 protest wave. The image of cultivating land that cannot be ploughed and eating bread that cannot nourish perfectly captured a sense that existing institutions and “reforms” were yielding little real benefit. The public mood turned toward demanding more substantive change, but the stick also warned that symbolic victories—without material outcomes—would leave people still hungry. In that sense, the prophecy was self‑fulfilling: people acted as if institutions were hollow, which in turn made them behave more cynically toward those institutions, deepening the crisis of trust.
2020: “No Need to Prove Heroism, Only Justice”
Stick 92, “Do not seek to show off heroism; what matters is fairness and justice,” appeared as the city was polarised by the 2019‑20 protests and the imposition of the National Security Law. The line about “heaven’s eye sees all” resonated with both sides: protesters saw it as a warning that injustice would eventually be judged, while authorities read it as confirmation that their actions would be vindicated over time. The stick’s call for restraint and fairness, however, was overshadowed by a collective psychology of “we must act now,” turning the warning into a justification for further escalation on both sides. Expectations of inevitable judgment hardened positions, making compromise harder and turning the prophecy into a self‑fulfilling narrative of confrontation.
2021: “Strike First, or the Fire Will Spread”
Stick 45, “Strike first with one decisive move; the world’s situation is otherwise futile… a fire under stacked firewood is not harmless,” arrived amid tightening controls, arrests, and the restructuring of Hong Kong’s political space. The advice to “act first” fit the government’s own strategy of pre‑emptive legal and administrative moves, while for civil‑society actors it suggested that delaying action would only make things worse. The image of an unseen fire under dry wood mirrored widespread fears that repression would escalate. Those fears, once widely shared, led people to interpret every new policy as part of an accelerating fire, which in turn triggered more defensive or confrontational behaviour—thus helping the prophecy come true.
2022: “Pick Up What Is Close at Hand”
Stick 38, “Others climb high for real fruit; I pick up mustard seeds from the low ground… it is better to flatter the hearth than the shrine,” warned against chasing distant, grandiose goals and instead focusing on immediate, practical gains. In 2022, as the city adjusted to a post‑2019, post‑pandemic reality, many organisations and individuals shifted from large‑scale activism to quieter, grassroots work. The stick’s message encouraged a psychology of “stay low, stay safe, and work where you can.” This mindset, once adopted by enough people, made large‑scale mobilisation less likely and helped stabilise the status quo—turning the stick’s caution into a self‑fulfilling pattern of retreat and consolidation.
2023: “Authority That Is Not True Authority”
Stick 11, “Authority that appears powerful is not true authority; it is better to exert effort within clear limits… even the High Emperor’s pavilion was eventually surrounded,” suggested that visible power structures could be fragile. The line about “advice and rules” pointed to the importance of internal discipline and restraint. In 2023, as the city’s institutions were reshaped under the National Security Law and new electoral rules, the stick resonated with a sense that formal authority could be challenged from within. At the same time, the warning against overreaching encouraged both authorities and citizens to act within narrower boundaries, reinforcing a cautious, rule‑bound culture. The prophecy thus fed a psychology of “power is temporary; stay within the lines,” which itself limited the space for bold action on either side.
2024: “Cutting Trees Before They Are Ready”
Stick 15, “Axes taken into the forest, but before the trees are mature where can one find them?… conserve strength and wait for spring,” arrived as Hong Kong’s economy and civil‑society sectors were still recovering from the pandemic and political upheaval. The image of cutting immature trees fit the sense that premature political or economic gambles would waste resources. The stick’s call to “wait for spring” encouraged patience and restraint, reinforcing a collective expectation that the current “winter” would last longer. That expectation, once widely shared, made people less willing to invest in long‑term, risky projects—thus helping to prolong the very stagnation the stick seemed to describe.
2025: “No Need for Greed, Only Integrity”
Stick 24, “If you have done no wrong in life, greed will still bring trouble… with the help of a noble person, do not waste your efforts,” appeared as Hong Kong faced a new political cycle and ongoing debates about economic recovery and social cohesion. The warning against greed and the emphasis on integrity fit a climate in which both authorities and citizens were wary of overreach and scandal. The line about “noble persons” helping to guide efforts resonated with hopes for moderate leadership. Yet the stick also implied that even well‑intentioned actions could go awry if driven by self‑interest. That fear of “greed bringing trouble” encouraged a cautious, consensus‑seeking psychology, which in turn made bold reforms harder to pass—turning the prophecy into a self‑fulfilling preference for incrementalism.
The Self‑Fulfilling Cycle of Group Psychology
Across these years, the Car‑Kung sticks function less as predictions from outside and more as psychological anchors that shape how people interpret events. Each stick offers a frame—caution, restraint, fairness, or patience—that large groups then adopt as a shared lens. Once enough people act as if that frame is true, their behaviour starts to produce the very outcomes the stick describes.
This is the essence of a self‑fulfilling prophecy in group psychology:
People hear a narrative (“wait for spring,” “do not show off heroism,” “greed brings trouble”).
They adjust their expectations and strategies accordingly.
Their collective actions then make that narrative come true, reinforcing the belief that the prophecy was accurate.
In Hong Kong’s case, the recurring themes of caution, restraint, and the fragility of power have helped sustain a climate of risk‑aversion and incremental change. The sticks did not cause the city’s trajectory; but they did help crystallise and reinforce the psychological mood that, in turn, shaped political and social outcomes. In that sense, the Car‑Kung divination has become part of the very cycle it appears to describe.
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