單靠票數，無法讓國家走向長遠進步：泰國「發錢陷阱」的警示

 

單靠票數，無法讓國家走向長遠進步：泰國「發錢陷阱」的警示

民主的基礎是選票，但僅憑票數，並不能保證國家走向進步。泰國的例子正凸顯這一點：當政治被短期民意與「發錢政策」主導，長期結構改革就會成為政治犧牲品。

正如《Bloomberg》指出，泰國已陷入「發錢陷阱」。二十多年來，政權頻繁更替，每屆政府都熱衷於即時刺激、現金補貼與短期措施，卻逃避深層結構改革。結果是負債攀升、投資低迷、成長停滯，昔日有潛力與新加坡、韓國並駕的國家，如今被越南與印度超越。

目前泰國經濟規模僅比疫情前高出 5%，相當於年均成長僅 1%。家庭債務高企、公共債達 GDP 的 66%，再加上貨幣政策幾乎無空間，使復甦步履維艱。

儘管如此，各政黨仍以短期民粹政策爭取選票：發現金、補貼貸款、保障農產品利潤。只有極少數政黨，如人民黨，提出打破壟斷與稅制改革的結構議程，但因票源集中城市而難以掌權。結果，理性選民追求即時利益，理性的政客追求選舉勝利，體制整體卻陷入惡性循環。

此現象揭示一個民主悖論：制度可以反映民意，卻無法自動產出遠見。當誘因錯置，政治不再是為未來設計，而是為選票妥協。泰國原定 2037 年成為高收入國家的目標，如今恐延至 2050 年之後。

計票能代表聲音，但不能代表方向。要讓國家真正前進，需要的不只是民主形式，更是政治勇氣與長期思維——選擇結構而非刺激，穩定而非喧鬧的掌聲。

Why Counting Votes Isn’t Enough: Thailand’s Cash Trap and the Cost of Short-Term Politics

 Why Counting Votes Isn’t Enough: Thailand’s Cash Trap and the Cost of Short-Term Politics

Democracy is built on votes, but votes alone cannot guarantee a country’s progress. The recent case of Thailand illustrates a deeper dilemma: when politics revolves around short-term popularity, fiscal giveaways, and vote-winning promises, structural reform becomes politically impossible.

As Bloomberg observed, Thailand has fallen into a “cash trap.” For over two decades, governments have changed frequently, each promising quick economic relief but avoiding the tougher path of reform. Political volatility has eroded long-term planning, leaving Thailand indebted, stagnant, and overtaken by regional peers such as Vietnam and India.

The numbers tell a sobering story: the Thai economy today is only 5% larger than before the pandemic—an average annual growth of barely 1%. By contrast, Vietnam’s economy expanded by 40% over the same period. High household debt, limited monetary tools, and a public debt level approaching 70% of GDP are further choking recovery.

Despite these realities, most parties still compete with populist proposals: cash handouts, low-interest loans, guaranteed farm prices. Among the major parties, only a few—like the People’s Party—advocate breaking monopolies or reforming taxation. Yet such reform-minded groups struggle to win rural votes, while populist parties dominate through immediate financial appeal. The ballot box rewards generosity, not sustainability.

This democratic paradox shows how systems built to reflect people’s will can still trap nations in mediocrity when political incentives are misaligned. Without consensus for long-term discipline, policies chase popularity, not productivity. Thailand’s dream of becoming a high-income economy by 2037 now seems remote—some projections push it past 2050.

Counting votes ensures representation, but not vision. Sustainable progress requires what ballots alone cannot deliver: political courage to prioritize structure over stimulus, and stability over short-term applause.

政府資金如何扭曲市場：英國特殊教育的困局

 政府資金如何扭曲市場：英國特殊教育的困局

當政府向體制注入鉅額資金，初衷往往是改善公平與質素，但英國的特殊教育制度卻顯示，資金錯置反而可能扭曲誘因，使問題更加根深蒂固。

核心問題在於具有法律效力的教育、健康與照顧計劃（EHCP）。過去十年，持有 EHCP 的學生人數由約 24 萬增至逾 57 萬。專責支付此類高成本個案的**「高需求預算」**已突破 100 億英鎊，令不少地方議會陷入赤字。

誘因扭曲使數字膨脹。財政緊張的主流學校若自行負擔支援成本，壓力極大；反之，若學生取得 EHCP，部分支出可由中央高需求預算分擔，於是轉介成為理性選擇。同樣，家長若對安排不滿便可上訴，而上訴成功率長期接近 九成，使雙方陷入一場制度競賽。資源遂被導向評估與訴訟，而非課室或早期介入。

供應端亦失衡。公營特殊學校不足，地方政府被迫向私營機構購買學位，每名學生每年成本動輒 6 萬至 10 萬英鎊。由於跨區安置普遍，交通開支隨之暴增，有學生甚至需每日一對一出租車接送，成本高達數萬英鎊。

與此同時，早期支援計劃連年削減，令家庭被迫申請 EHCP 才能獲得協助。醫療、教育與社福預算各自為政，進一步削弱效率。結果是：「人人理性，體制失靈」——學校傾向轉介、家長傾向上訴、供應商傾向抬價、地方政府傾向拖延。

要改革，不在於單純加錢或減錢，而在於重塑誘因——讓早期支援值得投資，合作比對抗划算，效能與質素取代官僚程序，才是重回正軌之路。

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How Government Money Twisted the Market: The UK’s Special Education Dilemma

 How Government Money Twisted the Market: The UK’s Special Education Dilemma

When governments inject vast sums of money into a system, they often hope to improve equity and quality. Yet, the UK’s special education framework shows how funding can distort incentives instead of solving underlying problems.

At the heart of the issue lies the Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP)—a legally binding document guaranteeing special support for children with additional needs. Over the past decade, the number of EHCPs has more than doubled from around 240,000 to over 570,000. The High Needs Block, a section of the local education budget that funds these high-cost cases, now exceeds £10 billion, pushing many councils into deep deficit.

Why the rapid growth? The funding mechanism itself encourages it. Ordinary schools, under financial strain, find it rational to refer students for EHCPs since doing so shifts part of the cost to the central high-needs budget. Parents, seeing the same logic, find it rational to appeal when support is denied—especially since nearly 90% of appeals succeed. The result: a procedural battlefield where money flows into assessments and legal processes rather than classrooms or early intervention.

On the supply side, public special schools are scarce, so councils rely on expensive private placements—many costing £60,000 to £100,000 per student per year. Transport costs inflate further as students are placed across districts, with some requiring one-to-one taxi services costing tens of thousands annually.

Meanwhile, preventive and early support programs have been cut, forcing families to escalate to EHCPs as the only route to get help. Fragmented budgets between education, health, and social care deepen inefficiency. Everyone acts rationally, yet collectively the system becomes irrational: schools pass costs upward, parents lawyer up, suppliers raise prices, and councils delay to stay solvent.

Fixing this requires more than just adding or cutting funds—it demands redesigning incentives so that early support is rewarded, collaboration is cheaper than conflict, and quality—not bureaucracy—drives outcomes.

從「貪心、懦弱、冷漠」看中國文化與現代伊斯蘭文化的比較：巴基斯坦、阿富汗及歐洲與英國穆斯林社群的對照

 從「貪心、懦弱、冷漠」看中國文化與現代伊斯蘭文化的比較：巴基斯坦、阿富汗及歐洲與英國穆斯林社群的對照

中國文化：結構性不安全感的症狀

羅素觀察到，中國人的「貪心」不僅是愛錢，更是一種生存驅動的焦慮，這種焦慮削弱了信任和契約精神。他指出，人們為了小利可以毀約、造假，甚至犧牲公共利益，而受過教育的精英也常把家族利益置於國家或社會之上。

這種行為，他認為，根源於長期的不安全感與資源匱乏、法治薄弱以及以家庭為中心的道德觀。在長期的專制統治下，法律常被權力扭曲，賄賂與關係成為實際的規則，「有錢能使鬼推磨」的信念深入人心。

現代伊斯蘭文化：巴基斯坦與阿富汗

在巴基斯坦和阿富汗，伊斯蘭是國教，超過95%的人口是穆斯林。文化深受伊斯蘭價值觀的影響，但也受到部落和地區傳統的影響。

• 信任與貪心
  在這兩個國家，信任往往建立在家庭和部落網絡中，類似於中國的「圈子文化」。然而，伊斯蘭教義強調誠實、公平和禁止高利貸（riba），這可以抵消貪心。

• 勇氣與懦弱
  在面對壓迫或不公時，許多穆斯林表現出非凡的勇氣，從阿富汗對抗蘇聯的抵抗到巴基斯坦對抗軍事統治的抗議。然而，對集體懲罰的恐懼和表達意見的風險也可能導致沉默，類似於羅素在中國觀察到的「懦弱」。

• 冷漠與同情心
  伊斯蘭教義強調同情、慈善（zakat）和社區（ummah）的重要性。然而，在實踐中，同情心往往局限於家庭和內群體，而陌生人可能被視為可疑。這與中國的「內圈倫理」相似，但有宗教框架鼓勵更廣泛的社會責任。

歐洲與英國的穆斯林社群

歐洲與英國的穆斯林社群面臨獨特的挑戰，包括融入、歧視以及傳統價值觀與現代世俗規範之間的張力。

• 信任與貪心
  在這些社群中，信任往往建立在清真寺和宗教網絡中。伊斯蘭教義中的誠實和公平可以幫助抵消貪心，但要在競爭激烈的社會中取得成功，也可能導致機會主義行為。

• 勇氣與懦弱
  許多穆斯林在歐洲與英國表現出勇氣，反對歧視並促進社會正義。然而，對反彈的恐懼和被標籤為「極端主義者」的風險也可能導致沉默。

• 冷漠與同情心
  伊斯蘭教義中的同情和慈善非常強烈，但挑戰在於將這種同情心擴展到穆斯林社群之外的更廣泛社會。這是歐洲與英國穆斯林社群正在努力與非穆斯林建立橋樑的關鍵領域。

伊斯蘭專家觀點

伊斯蘭學者強調，貪心、懦弱和冷漠的根源並非人類本性，而是社會和經濟條件的結果。他們認為，通過加強制度、促進教育和培養社區感，這些症狀可以得到解決。

總之，雖然貪心、懦弱和冷漠在中國與伊斯蘭文化中的表現形式不同，但其根本的結構性原因相似。解決這些問題需要制度改革、教育和對倫理與宗教價值觀的重新承諾。

Greed, Cowardice, and Indifference Revisited: Comparing Chinese Culture with Modern Islamic Cultures in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Muslim Communities in Europe and the UK

 

Greed, Cowardice, and Indifference Revisited: Comparing Chinese Culture with Modern Islamic Cultures in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Muslim Communities in Europe and the UK

Bertrand Russell’s critique of Chinese national character—greed, cowardice, and indifference—can be usefully compared with modern Islamic cultures in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Muslim communities in Europe and the UK. While the specific historical and religious contexts differ, there are striking parallels and contrasts in how these societies handle issues of trust, courage, and compassion.

Chinese Culture: Symptoms of Structural Insecurity

Russell observed that Chinese “greed” was not just a love of money, but a survival-driven anxiety that eroded trust and contract-like behavior. He noted that people would break promises, cheat, or exploit others for small gains, especially in dealings with outsiders or the state.

This behavior, he argued, was rooted in chronic insecurity and scarcity, weak rule of law, and a family-centric moral universe. Under long-standing autocratic rule, formal rules were often arbitrary, and real power lay in personal connections and bribes. The saying “有錢能使鬼推磨” (“money can make even devils push the millstone”) reflects a belief that money and connections, not law, determine outcomes.

Russell also noted that even educated elites often prioritized family or clan interests over public good, turning “greed” into a form of defensive solidarity—protecting one’s own circle at the expense of strangers.

Modern Islamic Cultures: Pakistan and Afghanistan

In Pakistan and Afghanistan, Islam is the state religion, and over 95% of the population is Muslim. The culture is deeply influenced by Islamic values, but also by tribal and regional traditions.

• Trust and Greed
  In both countries, trust is often built within family and tribal networks, similar to the Chinese “circle culture.” However, Islamic teachings emphasize honesty, fairness, and the prohibition of riba (usury), which can counteract greed.

• Courage and Cowardice
  In the face of oppression or injustice, many Muslims in these regions have shown remarkable courage, from the Afghan resistance against the Soviet Union to the Pakistani protests against military rule. However, fear of collective punishment and the risk of speaking out can also lead to silence, similar to the “cowardice” Russell observed in China.

• Indifference and Compassion
  Islamic teachings emphasize compassion, charity (zakat), and the importance of community (ummah). Yet, in practice, compassion is often limited to family and in-group, while strangers may be treated with suspicion. This mirrors the Chinese “inner-circle” ethics, but with a religious framework that encourages broader social responsibility.

Muslim Communities in Europe and the UK

Muslim communities in Europe and the UK face unique challenges, including integration, discrimination, and the tension between traditional values and modern secular norms.

• Trust and Greed
  In these communities, trust is often built within mosques and religious networks. Islamic teachings on honesty and fairness can help counteract greed, but the pressure to succeed in a competitive society can also lead to opportunistic behavior.

• Courage and Cowardice
  Many Muslims in Europe and the UK have shown courage in standing up against discrimination and promoting social justice. However, fear of backlash and the risk of being labeled as “extremist” can also lead to silence.

• Indifference and Compassion
  Islamic teachings on compassion and charity are strong, but the challenge is to extend this compassion beyond the Muslim community to the broader society. This is a key area where Muslim communities in Europe and the UK are working to build bridges with non-Muslims.

Expert Islamic Viewpoints

Islamic scholars emphasize that the root causes of greed, cowardice, and indifference are not inherent to human nature but are the result of social and economic conditions. They argue that by strengthening institutions, promoting education, and fostering a sense of community, these symptoms can be addressed.

In conclusion, while the specific manifestations of greed, cowardice, and indifference differ between Chinese and Islamic cultures, the underlying structural causes are similar. Addressing these issues requires a combination of institutional reform, education, and a renewed commitment to ethical and religious values.